Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the I2505 contract rebounded with a reduction in positions. Macroscopically, as of March 31, 29 cities introduced 33 property market relaxation policies, including canceling housing restrictive measures, supporting the sale of completed homes, organizing housing promotion activities, and launching "good housing" policies. In terms of supply and demand, the current Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased by 132.6 tons, the arrival volume decreased by 267.3 tons, and the port inventory increased by 64.91 tons. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills continued to rise, but the increase narrowed. The larger reduction in short - positions of mainstream holdings supported the rebound of ore prices. In the short term, continue to pay attention to US tariff policies. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2505 contract shows that DIFF and DEA stopped falling and rebounded. The operation suggestion is intraday short - term trading, paying attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 792.00 yuan/ton, up 19.00 yuan; the position volume was 355,196 hands, down 11,036 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 44.5 yuan/ton, up 3.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 11,623 hands, up 9,710 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 0.00 hands, down 2,000.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 102.7 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 1.71 US dollars [2]. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 10 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 818 yuan/dry ton, down 8 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 696 yuan/dry ton, down 11 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 26 yuan, down 27 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 101.65 US dollars/ton, down 1.85 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.33, up 0.03. The estimated import cost was 854 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly departure volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments was 2,647.80 tons, up 132.60 tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,372.30 tons, down 267.30 tons. The weekly inventory at 45 ports was 14,520.40 tons, up 57.91 tons; the weekly inventory of sample steel mills was 9,110.45 tons, down 14.41 tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore was 9,421.00 tons, down 294.00 tons. The available days of iron ore were 19.00 days, down 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines was 41.12 tons, down 0.01 tons; the operating rate was 65.05%, down 0.22%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 64.13 tons, up 8.35 tons. The BDI index was 1,598.00, down 4.00. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.99 US dollars/ton, down 0.49 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.64 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.13%, up 0.15%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.10%, up 0.38%. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 7,597 tons, down 243 tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.90%, down 1.19%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 21.26%, up 0.28%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.86%, up 0.87%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.43%, up 1.27% [2]. Industry News - From March 24 to March 30, 2025, the total Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments were 2,647.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 132.6 tons. Australian shipments were 1,986.4 tons, up 107.8 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1,527.0 tons, up 34.4 tons. Brazilian shipments were 661.4 tons, up 24.9 tons. From March 24 to March 30, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,372.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 267.3 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2,243.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 267.0 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,049.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 191.2 tons [2].
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-2025-04-01