如何看待二季度国债发行计划？

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The Q2 2025 treasury bond issuance plan is in line with expectations, with two notable changes: an increase in long - term bond issuance and the issuance of special treasury bonds for capital injection [3]. - Although the issuance scale of long - term bonds has increased in structure, the net financing pressure of treasury bonds in April is not high. The net financing peak of Q2 treasury bonds is concentrated in May - June, and due to the large maturity volume in April, the supply pressure is low. Overall, the supply pressure of treasury bonds gradually rebounds in Q2, with an increase in long - term bonds of key tenors. However, the relatively large maturity volume of treasury bonds in April makes the supply pressure of interest - rate bonds not high, which is particularly beneficial to the short - end [4][6]. - This year, the supply of interest - rate bonds is significantly higher than in previous years. The issuance of treasury bonds was slow in Q1, while local bonds were issued at an accelerated pace. The supply pressure in Q2 is relatively controllable, and the peak may fall in Q3. From the supply level, there is a certain downward opportunity for the bond market in April [6]. Summary by Relevant Contents Treasury Bond Issuance Plan in Q2 2025 - Key - term treasury bonds: From April to June, one 1Y, 2Y, and 3Y treasury bond will be issued each month. In addition, one 7Y and one 10Y treasury bond will be issued in April; two 10Y treasury bonds in May; one 5Y and two 10Y treasury bonds in June [4]. - Short - term treasury bonds: For 28 - day, 63 - day, 91 - day, and 182 - day treasury bonds, one 28 - day, one 63 - day, four 91 - day, and one 182 - day treasury bond will be issued in April; one 28 - day, one 63 - day, three 91 - day, and one 182 - day in May; one 28 - day, one 63 - day, four 91 - day, and one 182 - day in June [4]. - Ultra - long - term general treasury bonds: One 30Y treasury bond will be issued in April [4]. - Savings treasury bonds: One 3Y and one 5Y electronic savings treasury bond will be issued in April and June respectively; one 3Y and one 5Y certificate - type savings treasury bond will be issued in May [4]. - Special treasury bonds: One 5Y special treasury bond will be issued in April; one 5Y and one 7Y in May; one 7Y in June [4]. Comparison with Q1 - Compared with Q1, there is an increase in the issuance of long - end key - term treasury bonds. Specifically, two fewer 5Y and 7Y key - term treasury bonds are issued, while two more 10Y key - term treasury bonds are issued. Although two fewer 30Y ultra - long - term general treasury bonds are issued, there are still special treasury bond issuance plans in Q2, which are expected to be smooth throughout the year based on 2024 experience [4]. Issuance of Special Treasury Bonds for Capital Injection - The special treasury bonds for central financial institution capital injection are mainly 5Y and 7Y bonds, with a smooth issuance rhythm from April to June (one in April, two in May) [4]. Net Financing of Treasury Bonds in Q2 - The estimated total issuance in April, May, and June is 11043.4 billion yuan, 10603.2 billion yuan, and 12141.0 billion yuan respectively; the estimated total repayment is 12025.5 billion yuan, 5589.7 billion yuan, and 8496.5 billion yuan respectively; the estimated net financing is - 982.1 billion yuan, 5013.5 billion yuan, and 3644.5 billion yuan respectively [10]. Annual Net Financing Estimate - Treasury bonds: The net financing is about 6.66 trillion yuan, including 4.86 trillion yuan for ordinary treasury bonds. The annual new special treasury bonds are 1.8 trillion yuan, including 1.3 trillion yuan for ultra - long - term bonds and 500 billion yuan for capital injection [8]. - Local bonds: The annual net financing is about 6.6 trillion yuan, including about 5.2 trillion yuan for new bonds, 2 trillion yuan for replacement bonds, and about 2.4 trillion yuan for refinancing bonds (estimated at an 80% ratio). After subtracting the maturity volume, the overall net financing is about 6.6 trillion yuan [8]. - Policy - financial bonds: The estimated net financing this year is about 1.8 trillion yuan, which is generally the same as in previous years. The net financing of policy - financial bonds from 2022 - 2024 was 2.08 trillion yuan, 1.86 trillion yuan, and 1.61 trillion yuan respectively [8].