Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea futures and spot markets are showing a divergence. The futures market is rising, but the spot market is weak with prices falling. The supply side has stable upstream maintenance, and the daily output is expected to remain above 190,000 tons this week. The demand side has increasing agricultural demand and stable compound fertilizer factory operations. The inventory is expected to continue to decline. The current futures price increase has no obvious fundamental change, and the market may return to the fundamental logic later, with the futures price likely to fluctuate and consolidate. Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures main contract increased in volume and price today. The spot market is not as hot as the futures market, with prices falling and weak trading. The upstream maintenance has not significantly affected the supply but has slightly relieved the market pressure. The agricultural demand is strong, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. The futures price increase has no obvious fundamental change, and the market may return to the fundamental logic later, with the futures price likely to fluctuate and consolidate. Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing the rise [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2505 contract opened at 1,875 yuan/ton, fluctuated downward in the morning, and then rose and fluctuated upward in the afternoon, closing at 1,929 yuan/ton, up 3.27%. The daily trading volume increased, and the open interest was 256,709 lots (+18,946 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions increased by 10,759 lots, and the short positions increased by 10,901 lots. Some futures companies' net long or short positions changed. On April 1, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,231, a decrease of 129 from the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: The spot market is not as hot as the futures market, with prices falling and weak trading. The factory ex - factory prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,880 - 1,930 yuan/ton, and some factories have slightly higher quotes. The prices in Shanxi are basically stable, with small - particle urea quoted at around 1,920 yuan/ton and large - particle urea at 1,910 - 1,930 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotes are stable with a downward trend, and the futures closing price has increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the May contract has weakened compared with the previous trading day, at 41 yuan/ton (-67 yuan/ton) [5]. - Supply Data: On April 1, 2025, the national urea daily output was 196,600 tons, a decrease of 80 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.33% [10].
期现分化，基本面变动不大
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-04-01 11:00