Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - After marginal improvement in the fundamentals from January to February, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in March will decline to 5.1%, and the GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be around 5.2%. In terms of structure, the year-on-year industrial added value growth rate in March will slightly decline to 5.3%, remaining stable. Domestic demand in terms of demand is acceptable, mainly supported by the front - loaded issuance of government bonds, good fund availability, and the promotion of "two major and two new" projects supporting infrastructure and manufacturing investment. Automobile sales remain booming, but the cumulative effect of tariffs may gradually appear, and it is expected that exports will still show negative growth year - on - year on a relatively low base from last year. In terms of prices, the pattern of oversupply continues, and broad - spectrum prices still face downward pressure. It is expected that the base effect will drive the year - on - year CPI to turn positive in March, while the year - on - year PPI is expected to decline slightly. Among leading indicators, credit may see a slight recovery after the impact of debt resolution eases, and social financing will improve to some extent mainly due to the increase in government bond issuance [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - GDP and Industrial Added Value: It is expected that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter will be around 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in March will decline to 5.3%. The average values of blast furnace operating rate and cement mill operating rate in March improved year - on - year, but the month - on - month improvement of the production PMI in March was less than seasonal, and the average value of the Ping An production index in March declined. Based on regression results, the year - on - year industrial added value in March is predicted to decline to around 5.3%. The GDP year - on - year in March 2025 is predicted to be about 5.1%, and the GDP year - on - year in the first quarter is about 5.2% [7]. - Investment: "Two major and two new" projects support manufacturing and infrastructure investment. The construction industry PMI in March was 53.4%, showing a significant month - on - month improvement but still lower than 56.2% in the same period last year. Considering price performance and project support, it is assumed that manufacturing investment is better than seasonal on a month - on - month basis, real estate development investment is weaker than seasonal, and infrastructure investment is slightly better than the same period last year. It is expected that the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure in March will be 9.1%, - 9.5%, and 10.1% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is expected to decline to 4.0% [7]. - Exports and Imports: Due to tariff disturbances and weak external demand, it is expected that the year - on - year export growth rate will decline. Although high - frequency data shows some support, such as the month - on - month increase of the PMI new export order index in March by 0.4 percentage points, the year - on - year growth rate of port container throughput of 9.8%, and the recovery of South Korea's export year - on - year growth rate from 0.7% in February to 3.1% in March, adverse factors are accumulating, including the US imposing an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products exported to the US in March, a slight appreciation of the RMB, and weakening US retail data. It is assumed that both imports and exports are slightly lower than seasonal, and it is expected that the year - on - year export and import growth rates in March will decline to - 1.5% and - 1.9% respectively [8]. - Consumption: Supported by automobile sales and the expansion of the trade - in program, it is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales will slightly decline to around 3.8%. Although the popularity of "Ne Zha 2" declined in March, with the year - on - year growth rate of movie - goers dropping to - 15.4% and the year - on - year growth rate of domestic flights dropping to - 0.8%, automobile sales and the trade - in program provide support. As of March 23, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of passenger car sales increased from 1.0% at the end of February to 5.0%, and the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption" on March 16 proposed to increase support for consumer goods trade - in [10]. 3.2 Price Situation - CPI: The low - base factor may drive the year - on - year CPI growth rate to turn positive. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale prices of pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs in March decreased by 5.0%, 3.8%, and 4.1% respectively on a month - on - month basis, but the decline was lower than the same period last year due to the Spring Festival date difference. It is expected that the month - on - month and year - on - year CPI in March will be - 0.1% and 0.2% respectively, and the year - on - year CPI in April - May will be 0.1% and 0.0% [11]. - PPI: The PPI month - on - month turns to decline and remains in the downward channel. Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that the production material price index decreased by 0.3 percentage points on a month - on - month basis in March, and the purchase price index and ex - factory price index in the PMI sub - items also declined on a month - on - month basis, indicating that the oversupply pattern continues. It is expected that the month - on - month and year - on - year PPI growth rates in March will be - 0.2% and - 2.3% respectively; the year - on - year growth rates in April - May will be - 2.2% and - 2.4% [11]. 3.3 Financial Situation - Credit: In March, the impact of debt resolution eased, and credit is expected to improve slightly. The 6M national - share transfer discount rate in March increased by 21BP, better than the 30BP decrease in the same period in 2024. Considering the significant decline in the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in March, the drag effect of debt resolution on credit has also eased. It is expected that new RMB loans in March may be supported, assuming it is basically the same as the level of the same period last year, or around 3 trillion [12]. - Social Financing: Government bonds in March maintained a large - scale issuance, driving the year - on - year increase in social financing. The net financing of government bonds in the Wind caliber in March was 1.4 trillion, with a year - on - year increase of about 1 trillion; the net financing of corporate bonds in the Wind caliber was about - 1200 billion, with a year - on - year decrease of about 4300 billion. It is expected that the new social financing will be 5.4 trillion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 8.3%. It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of M2 in March will decline to 6.9%, and the M1 growth rate will be 0.3%. The excess deposit reserve ratio at the end of March is estimated to be 1.2% [12].
平安证券：2025年3月债券月势晓预计1季度GDP增速约5.2%
Ping An Securities·2025-04-01 11:12