Haitong Securities International·2025-04-01 12:20Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for several companies in the food and beverage sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanjing Beer, among others [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that five out of eight tracked industries maintained positive growth in March 2025, while three experienced negative growth. The industries with single-digit growth include frozen food, catering, soft drinks, condiments, and beer. In contrast, sub-high-end and above liquor and dairy products saw single-digit declines, with mass liquor experiencing double-digit declines. Overall demand has not significantly increased or decreased, but the decline in liquor and dairy is attributed to cyclical supply surpluses, expected to ease in the latter half of the year [3][31]. Summary by Category Liquor - Sub-high-end and above liquor industry revenue in March was 31 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January to March was 130 billion yuan, also down 6.9% year-on-year. Price trends show a general decline in ultra-high-end products, while high-end products have mixed price movements. Inventory levels have slightly increased but remain below last year's figures [4][13]. - Mass liquor revenue in March was 21 billion yuan, down 12.5% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for the first quarter at 59 billion yuan, down 16.3% year-on-year. This segment has seen 14 consecutive months of negative growth [15]. Beer - The domestic beer industry generated 14.1 billion yuan in revenue in March, a 0.7% year-on-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first quarter at 46.9 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year. The industry is expected to see slight revenue growth due to stable sales from major breweries [5][17]. Condiments - The condiment industry reported 34.6 billion yuan in revenue for March, a 1.0% year-on-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first quarter at 119.9 billion yuan, growing 1.7% year-on-year. Compound condiments are outperforming basic condiments, with a trend towards premiumization in consumer products [19]. Dairy Products - The dairy industry revenue in March was 33.5 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for the first quarter at 121.1 billion yuan, down 2.7% year-on-year. Sales have weakened post-Spring Festival, but channel inventories remain healthy [21]. Frozen Food - The frozen food industry generated 10 billion yuan in revenue in March, a 4.0% year-on-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first quarter at 38.5 billion yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year. Traditional frozen products are facing demand pressure, but leading companies are expanding channels and product categories [23]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry reported 45.6 billion yuan in revenue for March, a 2.2% year-on-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first quarter at 185.6 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year. Companies are accelerating shipments to capture channel inventory ahead of peak season [25]. Catering - The catering sector's revenue in March was 13.8 billion yuan, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with cumulative revenue for the first quarter at 43.9 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year. Leading brands are adjusting strategies and expanding store counts, although same-store sales have not shown significant improvement [27].