Guoyuan Securities·2025-04-01 12:42Investment Rating - The report recommends an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on power semiconductors like IGBT and SiC [5]. Core Insights - The IGBT market is showing signs of recovery, with shipments expected to return to positive growth by Q2 2024, indicating the end of the industry downturn. IGBT prices have stabilized after a nearly 30% year-on-year decline in Q1 2024, suggesting a potential upward trend in both prices and shipments [1][11]. - China's IGBT self-sufficiency is improving, driven by capacity expansion and technological advancements among local manufacturers. The SiC market is anticipated to enter a phase of oversupply in 2024, leading to a decline in prices [2][12]. - Demand for IGBT is expected to rise due to increased sales of mid-range electric vehicles (EVs) and the penetration of 800V platforms, which will also accelerate the adoption of SiC in higher-end models [3][44]. Summary by Sections Overall Viewpoint - The IGBT market is transitioning from a downturn to a recovery phase, with improved shipment volumes and price stabilization indicating a potential market rebound [11][20]. IGBT Industry Improvement and SiC Adoption - The power semiconductor sector is critical for energy conversion and control in various applications, including EVs and industrial control. The market is expected to grow significantly, with IGBT shipments projected to increase as demand from the automotive sector rises [16][23]. Capacity Side: China's IGBT Self-Sufficiency and SiC Price Decline - China's IGBT production is forecasted to grow from 15.5 million units in 2019 to 39 million units by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.27%. However, the self-sufficiency rate remains below 35% as of 2023 [31][12]. - The SiC market is expected to experience oversupply in 2024, with a 50% increase in global production capacity compared to 2023, leading to a significant price drop [12][33]. Demand Side: Mid-Range Vehicle Demand Boosting IGBT and SiC Adoption - The global EV market is projected to grow from 3.31 million units in 2020 to 14.65 million units in 2023, with a CAGR of 64.2%. China's EV sales are expected to reach 12.86 million units in 2024, significantly boosting demand for power semiconductors [44][45]. - The penetration of SiC in high-voltage applications is increasing, with 800V platform vehicles expected to dominate the market, enhancing the efficiency and performance of EVs [50][49]. Competitive Landscape - The IGBT market is currently dominated by overseas manufacturers, but Chinese companies are gradually increasing their market share due to technological advancements and capacity expansions [13][15]. - The competitive landscape for SiC substrates is also shifting, with Chinese firms expected to gain a larger share as they ramp up production and improve technology [15][42].