港股调整，海外扰动或影响本周港股表现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Hong Kong stock market entered a short - term adjustment period last week due to multiple internal and external factors. In the short - term, it may continue to decline to find technical support, but in the medium - to - long - term, it has good resilience. The report continues to be optimistic about the structural market of Hong Kong stocks triggered by the AI wave [4][27][31]. - Investors are advised to focus on industries empowered by AI, leading companies in the consumer electronics and automotive industries supported by new - quality productivity policies, and also allocate some defensive sectors with strong cash - flow capabilities such as energy, communication, and public utilities [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Market Performance - Hong Kong stock index futures prices continued to decline last week. By the weekend, the Hang Seng Index futures price in April 2025 changed by - 1.01%, and the technology index futures rose by - 2.19%. The Hang Seng Index futures' open interest changed by 3.21%, with a basis of 3.40 points; the technology index open interest changed by 7.73%, with a basis of - 16.47 points [2][10]. - US stock index futures prices also fell last week. By the weekend, the Dow Jones futures price changed by - 1.11%, and the S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures prices changed by - 1.67% and - 2.52% respectively. The Dow Jones futures' open interest changed by - 1.44%, and the Nasdaq futures' open interest changed by 4.15%. The Dow Jones futures' basis was 130.10 points, a change of - 214.55 points from the previous week, and the Nasdaq 100 futures' basis was 79.60 points, a change of - 137.18 points from the previous week [2][10]. 3.1.2 Hong Kong and US Stock Performance - The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated last week. By the weekend, the Hang Seng Index fell by - 1.11%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by - 1.06%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by - 2.36%. Most Hong Kong stock industries declined, with the healthcare industry rising by 3.41% and the raw materials industry rising by 2.5%, while the technology industry fell by 2.31% [12]. - US stocks also declined last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by - 0.96%, the S&P 500 fell by - 1.53%, and the Nasdaq fell by - 2.59%. Among the S&P industry sectors, traditional sectors performed well, with daily consumption rising by 1.65% and energy rising by 0.77%, while the communication services and information technology industries declined rapidly, falling by - 3.23% and - 3.65% respectively [12]. 3.2 Market External Environment Tracking 3.2.1 Domestic Major City Housing Sales Situation Tracking - The secondary - hand housing sales in domestic major cities increased year - on - year last week. The total number of second - hand housing sales in 14 observed cities was 16,358 units, with an area of 168.6 million square meters, showing a year - on - year increase of 0.4% and 0.5% respectively [3][21]. - The total number of commercial housing transactions (net signing) in 30 cities was 22,309 units, with an area of 171.6 million square meters, showing a year - on - year decrease of 16.3% in the number of units and an increase of 5.8% in the area [20]. 3.2.2 Central Bank's Latest Movements - The Fed's latest stance on interest rate cuts is cautious. Goolsbee warned that if US bond market investors start to expect higher inflation, it may disrupt the central bank's interest rate cut plan. Due to the uncertainty brought by tariff policies, the next interest rate cut may take longer than expected [22]. - Musalem believes that an economic recession is not imminent and expects the inflation rate to fall to 2% by 2027. Collins is cautiously and realistically optimistic about the economy, stating that inflation has declined but was still high at the beginning of the year, with an upward - biased inflation risk. She strongly supports the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and believes that the Fed may keep interest rates stable for a longer time [22][23]. 3.2.3 Some Domestic and Overseas Important News - The Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates. The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.5% unchanged, stating that the Japanese economy has moderately recovered, inflation expectations have moderately increased, but uncertainties are still high, and more attention should be paid to the impact of exchange - rate changes on prices [25]. - The US announced new PCE and economic forecasts from the University of Michigan. Trump may impose tariffs starting from April 2, including a 25% tariff on cars, pharmaceuticals, and timber [4][25]. - The UK and India are considering reducing taxes on the US before April 2 to avoid US tariff strikes. India plans to cut tariffs on $23 billion of US goods and cancel the controversial 6% digital tax, while the UK is considering adjusting the digital service tax on US technology companies [29]. 3.3 Investment View 3.3.1 Market Summary - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant adjustment last week. The Hang Seng Index weakened slightly by - 1.11%, and trading volume increased compared with the previous week. Overseas factors such as the US PCE slightly exceeding expectations, the rapid decline in the Michigan consumer confidence data, and Trump's tariff policy, as well as domestic factors such as Xiaomi's share placement, the large performance differentiation of Hong Kong - listed companies, and the decrease in south - bound capital, led to insufficient upward momentum for Hong Kong stocks [27]. 3.3.2 Market Judgment - The Hong Kong stock market has entered an adjustment period. Technically, it may continue to decline in the short - term to find technical support. The previously rising technology stocks have declined significantly, while traditional sectors are relatively resilient, indicating a sector rotation in the market [28]. - The market still highly recognizes the AI wave. Although there are external disturbances such as US tariffs, the overall short - term market adjustment is limited, and Hong Kong stocks are expected to have good resilience in the medium - to - long - term [30]. 3.3.3 Outlook - In the short - term, the Hong Kong stock market is relatively cautious, but in the medium - to - long - term, the trend is cautiously optimistic. Overseas disturbances in Hong Kong stocks may increase recently. US economic data has led the market to bet on a slowdown in US economic growth and a delay in Fed interest rate cuts, and Trump's tariff policy brings high uncertainty, which may cause US stocks to continue to decline in the short - term and also affect Hong Kong stocks [31]. - The long - term market of Hong Kong stocks can be expected if subsequent stimulus measures lead to a significant recovery in domestic demand or if the AI sector significantly boosts the performance of related companies [31]. 3.3.4 Sector Allocation - Investors are advised to focus on leading stocks in the consumer and Internet sectors that are expected to benefit from AI empowerment, and leading companies in the consumer electronics and automotive industries supported by new - quality productivity policies. Long - term investors are recommended to allocate some defensive sectors with strong cash - flow capabilities such as energy, communication, and public utilities [32]. - In derivatives trading, as Hong Kong stocks are likely to continue to adjust in the short - term, investors can appropriately buy option portfolios to reduce portfolio volatility [32].