DEPPON(SH:603056) Xinda Securities·2025-04-01 14:23Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2][10]. Core Viewpoints - The company, 德邦股份, is positioned as a leading player in the direct-operated express delivery sector, benefiting from its integration with 京东, which enhances its revenue streams and operational efficiency [5][18]. - The company's profitability has significantly improved due to the consolidation of the express delivery market and the advancement of network integration projects, with net profit growth of 76.77% in 2023 and an expected 24.65% in the first three quarters of 2024 [5][9]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will reach 1.02 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 18.9% [9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - 德邦股份 has been a key player in the heavy cargo sector since its establishment in 1996, transitioning into the express delivery market in 2013 and becoming publicly listed in 2018. In 2022, it was acquired by 京东, which now holds 75.40% of the company [5][19][20]. Business Structure - As of early 2024, the company's revenue composition shows that express delivery accounts for 90.2% of its income, while traditional express services contribute approximately 5.7% [5][24]. - The company has a robust operational model that includes a comprehensive logistics network and standardized service processes, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [58]. Market Dynamics - The express delivery market in China is projected to grow steadily, with the overall market size reaching approximately 1.5 trillion yuan in 2022. The report indicates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4%-8% for various segments from 2025 to 2030 [6][37]. - The demand for large-item express delivery is increasing due to the growth of e-commerce, with significant sales in large appliances expected to reach 278.9 billion yuan in 2024 [48][55]. Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 40.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.3% [11]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in the company's profitability, with net profit margins expected to stabilize around 8.3% in the coming years [11][30]. Strategic Initiatives - The integration with 京东 is expected to drive revenue growth through enhanced operational synergies and increased transaction volumes, with projected related transactions reaching 8 billion yuan in 2024 [7][9]. - The company is also focusing on cost management through network integration and resource optimization, which is anticipated to further improve its profitability [8][30].