印度原料药支持计划实施效果不及预期，产能释放时间延后

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic, expecting an overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [7] Core Insights - The Indian API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) support plan has not met expectations, with delays in capacity release [1] - The Indian government initiated the API PLI (Production-Linked Incentive) plan and API park plan in 2020, with a total expected expenditure of 69.4 billion INR (approximately 795 million USD) to promote domestic production of 53 APIs [2] - Progress on the construction of API parks in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh is slow, with an extended deadline to Q1 2026 [3] - The overall implementation of the API PLI plan has been unsatisfactory, with insufficient fund utilization over three consecutive years [4] - The release of new API capacity in India will take additional time, with a potential realization of capacity release around 2027-2028, while Chinese API companies maintain a comparative advantage [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Indian API support plan's implementation has been less effective than anticipated, leading to a delay in capacity release [1] - The construction of three API parks is progressing slowly, with a revised completion timeline set for March 2026 [3] Financial Insights - The total financial assistance allocated to the three states for API park construction is 43.71 billion INR for Gujarat, 26.05 billion INR for Himachal Pradesh, and 35.73 billion INR for Andhra Pradesh, with varying levels of fund utilization [3] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the API sector include companies expanding into formulation and CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) fields, those with a high proportion of new product business, and companies with significant potential for earnings recovery due to inventory destocking [6]