债券日报：似曾相识的Q2国债发行计划-2025-04-02

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Q2 2025 national debt issuance plan is unusual, with multiple - maturity ordinary national debts breaking the regular issuance pattern, likely to make way for special national debts. We can infer the issuance method and rhythm of special national debts from these irregular arrangements [8]. Summary by Catalog 1. Issuance Method of Capital - Injection Special National Debts: Higher Probability of Public Issuance - Clue 1: Limited Single - Issue Scale of Capital - Injection Special National Debts, Low Necessity for Directed Issuance - Historically, the issuance methods of special national debts have evolved from "directed issuance" in 1998 to "directed issuance + public issuance" in 2007 and then to "public issuance" since 2020. Since 2020, only the roll - over of some large - scale special national debts at maturity has used the directed method, while new special national debts have all been publicly issued [10]. - The current "directed capital injection" by the Ministry of Finance into the four major banks refers to directed stock subscription, not "directed issuance" at the bond issuance end. The first - batch special national debt scale is 50 billion yuan, with the Ministry of Finance injecting capital into four banks through stock subscription. If publicly issued, the single - issue scale of 12.5 billion yuan is less than the current 17 - billion - yuan scale of key - maturity national debts, and the pressure on institutional underwriting is not large. Also, since mid - March, the issuance price of large - state - owned and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit has declined, indicating reduced pressure on large banks' liability ends [11][13]. - Clue 2: The Ministry of Finance Mentions Promoting Capital Supplement Work According to the "Market - Oriented" Principle - Since 2020, the issuance of special national debts has often mentioned using the "market - oriented method". In 2025, the Ministry of Finance also emphasized the "market - oriented" principle for the current capital - injection special national debts, so they are likely to be publicly issued [16]. - Clue 3: 5 - 7y Key - Maturity Ordinary National Debts "Make Way" for Corresponding - Maturity Capital - Injection Special National Debts - The irregular arrangement of 5 - 7y ordinary national debts in Q2 shows an obvious feature of "making way" for 5 - 7y capital - injection special national debts. When 4 additional 5 - 7y capital - injection special national debts are issued, 4 issues of 5 - 7y ordinary national debts are reduced, and the time points can be corresponding. If it were a directed issuance, this arrangement would be unnecessary [19]. 2. When Will the Ultra - Long - Term Special National Debts Be Issued: Higher Probability in May - Clue 1: The Ministry of Finance Mentions that the Issuance Arrangement of Ultra - Long - Term Special National Debts Will Be Announced Separately, with a High Probability of Issuance in Q2 - Similar to 2024, the Q2 2025 national debt issuance plan also mentions that the issuance arrangement of ultra - long - term special national debts will be announced separately, which may indicate an upcoming issuance in Q2. In 2024, the ultra - long - term special national debts started to be issued in May [20]. - Clue 2: The Issuance of Ultra - Long - Term Ordinary National Debts Will Be Suspended from May, Likely to Make Way for the Issuance of Ultra - Long - Term Special National Debts - In 2024, the ultra - long - term ordinary national debts clearly made way for ultra - long - term special national debts. The issuance of ultra - long - term ordinary national debts was suspended when the ultra - long - term special national debts started to be issued in May 2024 and resumed in December 2024 after the special national debts were fully issued. In the Q2 2025 national debt issuance plan, the issuance of 30y and 50y ultra - long - term ordinary national debts will be suspended from May, which may be a signal for the start of ultra - long - term special national debt issuance [22][23]. 3. Outlook on the Subsequent Supply Rhythm of Government Bonds - National Debts - In Q2, the net financing may be 1.9 trillion yuan, including 1.1 trillion yuan of ordinary national debts and 800 billion yuan of special national debts. Due to the maturity pressure in April, the net financing is 120 billion yuan, and it may rise to 700 billion yuan and 1 trillion yuan in May and June respectively. In the third and fourth quarters, the net financing of national debts will be 2.3 trillion yuan and 1 trillion yuan respectively [2][24]. - Local Debts - In Q2, the net financing may be 1.8 trillion yuan, with new special bonds being 1.3 trillion yuan. The net financing in the third and fourth quarters may be 2 trillion yuan and 700 billion yuan respectively. In Q2, referring to the local debt issuance plan, the net financing in April - May is around 700 billion yuan, and it will decline to 470 billion yuan in June. In the second half of the year, referring to historical issuance progress, the peak of local debt net financing may be in August, with single - month net financing approaching 1 trillion yuan [27]. - Government Bonds - Pay attention to the supply pressure from May to June and from August to September. In Q2, the net financing is 3.7 trillion yuan, with less pressure in April and rising to 1.4 - 1.5 trillion yuan in May - June. In the third quarter, the net financing may reach 4.3 trillion yuan, and the supply pressure from August to September may be relatively large, with single - month net financing ranging from 1.4 trillion yuan to 2 trillion yuan. In the fourth quarter, government bond issuance may enter a slack season, with net financing dropping to 1.7 trillion yuan [3].