Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock index is likely to undergo short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations, with a short - term shock - weakening approach for operation [2] - For certain commodities, the views are as follows: for some commodities, take a shock - strong approach; for alumina, a shock - more approach; for pulp, a shock - bottoming approach; for rubber, a low - level shock - consolidation approach after a short - term sharp decline; for urea, a high - level shock approach [5][8][11] Group 3: Summaries by Related Commodities Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it has entered a "fatigue" state. Fundamentally, as listed companies are in the intensive annual report disclosure period, some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, there is a high - level MACD death cross, indicating a need for further adjustment [2] General Commodity (not specified) - It closed up today, with disordered recent price movements, and should be viewed with a shock - strong approach [5] Unspecified Commodity (related to long - term supply) - Long - term supply intensity is high. As the traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand. Technically, there is a double golden cross of indicators [6] Glass - Recently, some production lines have been cold - repaired again, and spot sales have improved. With positive market sentiment under recent policy influence, actual demand still needs to be observed. Technically, although there was a large increase today, the trend is unclear, and it should be viewed with a shock - strong approach [8] Alumina - The average production cost in the alumina industry is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line. It should be viewed with a shock - more approach [11] Pulp - There is support from rigid demand and the cost side below, so the room for further decline is expected to be limited. The inventory showed a destocking trend in this cycle, and it should be treated as shock - bottoming [14] Rubber - The new - season tapping is going smoothly, and the expectation of a rapid increase in supply has brought heavy pressure to the futures and spot markets. The purchase price of tire manufacturers is lower than expected and fails to provide a boost. Technically, there is a death cross of MACD and short - term moving averages, and it will have low - level shock - consolidation after a short - term sharp decline [16] Urea - The current daily production of urea is high, and the supply remains relatively loose. Industrial demand is expected to weaken, and the spring agricultural fertilization demand is about to end. It should be treated as high - level shock [19]
金信期货日刊-2025-04-02
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-04-01 23:46