生猪日报：期价震荡调整-2025-04-02

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report | April 2, 2025 [1] - Author: Shi Xiangying, Pig Researcher [5] - Contact: 0371 - 69106756, shixy@hrrdqh.com [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The main contract (LH2505) reduced its positions by 1,969 lots today, with an open interest of approximately 50,000 lots. The highest price was 13,290 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,170 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,240 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December. Based on piglet data, the pig slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly. The first half of the year is a consumption off - season compared to the second half [3] - From historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may continue to decline [3] - Market bearish logic: The pig slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 still has room to increase, and there is still pressure on slaughter. The farming side is still increasing the weight of pigs, which is actually negative for future pig prices. Bullish logic: The recent pig prices have been relatively firm, and the futures price is at a large discount, making long - positions cost - effective [3] Group 4: Strategy Suggestion - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate at a low level, and in the medium - to - long term, pig prices may still reach new lows [4] - Core logic: Based on piglet data, the pig slaughter volume in the first half of 2025 may increase monthly, and there is no basis for a sharp increase in pig prices. The current pork consumption has entered an off - season, and demand has weak support for pig prices. Although there may be new lows in the medium - to - long term, due to high uncertainty and relatively firm recent spot prices, it is recommended to wait and see [4] Group 5: Other Information - The second - round fattening is gradually fading out. As of April 1, a total of 0 lots of pig warehouse receipts were registered [5] Group 6: Market Overview | Category | Indicator Name | April 1, 2025 | March 31, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | National Pig Slaughter Price (yuan/kg) | National | 14.66 | 14.6 | 0.06 | 0.41% | | | Henan | 14.68 | 14.75 | - 0.07 | - 0.47% | | | Sichuan | 14.46 | 14.45 | 0.01 | 0.07% | | | 01 Contract | 13,845 | 13,910 | - 65 | - 0.47% | | | 03 Contract | 13,060 | 13,035 | 25 | 0.19% | | | 05 Contract | 13,240 | 13,245 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | | 07 Contract | 13,460 | 13,465 | - 5 | - 0.04% | | | 09 Contract | 13,930 | 13,945 | - 15 | - 0.11% | | | 11 Contract | 13,765 | 13,780 | - 15 | - 0.11% | | Main Contract Basis (yuan/ton) | Henan | 1440 | 1505 | - 65 | - 4.32% | [6] Group 7: Key Data Tracking - Data includes national pig slaughter price, sample enterprise slaughter volume,白条均价, corn national grain depot purchase average price, etc., from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][10][11] - Data sources: Yongyi Consulting, Wind, Rongda Futures [6][7][13]