生猪日报 | 2025-08-26 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、8月25日，生猪注册仓单430手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日减仓3231手，持仓约7万手，今日最高价14015 元/吨，最低价13860元/吨，收盘于13910元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 作者： 2）150Kg与标猪价差企稳反弹，从季节性看该价差有望继续走强，也会削弱散 户群体的降重意愿，给猪价以一定支撑； 3）若接下来养殖端继续降重或体重保持稳定，则猪价或震荡调整，并对11合约 有一定程度的利好，考虑11合约对现货价格已有微升水，建议暂时观望（仅供 参考，不构成投资建议）。 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①养殖端已有所降重利好后市 ...

、+** 棉花周报|2025-08-25 美联储主席暗示 9 月降息，商品市场氛围偏暖 郑棉周内表现先抑后扬，关注下游临近旺季表现 棉花周报 2025-08-25 第一部分国内外棉花市场基本 一、一周数据总览 主要商品及棉花价格 国内外主要棉花及商品价格指数 摘要： 截至 08 月 24 日 CRB 大宗商品价格指数小幅上涨，08 月 24 日收盘报 300 点，较 08 月 15 日累计上涨 4.46 点。08 月 24 日文华商品指数报 165.21，较 08 月 15 日下跌 1.11，跌幅为 0.67%。08 月 24 日，ICE 期棉主力 12 月合约报 68 美分/磅，较 08 月 15 日上涨 0.52 美分/磅，涨幅为 0.77%。截至 08 月 24 日当周郑棉主力 01 合约收盘报 14030 元/吨，较 08 月 15 日下跌 90 元/吨，持 仓累计增加 7288 手，至 48.5 万手。 本周郑棉期价走势表现为先抑后扬，周一周五期价重心下移，周五夜盘受 外部宏观环境影响价格显著反弹。从产业情况来看，陈棉库存整体偏紧处于历 史同期最低水平，新棉涨势良好，供应端即将到来的新棉收购情况仍待 ...

基本面看暂无大矛盾，生猪合约震荡调整。 生猪主力合约基差(元/吨) -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 01-02 01-29 02-25 03-22 04-18 05-17 06-12 07-08 08-03 08-29 09-25 10-28 11-23 12-19 2022 2023 2024 2025 --7070 类别 指标名称 2025-08-22 2025-08-15 基准地出栏价(元/公斤) 河南 13.77 13.81 期货合约收盘价(元/吨) 01合约 14145 14225 03合约 13300 13320 05合约 13740 13890 07合约 14175 14290 09合约 13760 13825 11合约 13840 13945 主力合约基差(元/吨) 基准地基差 -70 -135 数据来源：Wind、涌益咨询、融达期货 | | | 下载图片 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 另存为PDF | | 生猪周报 | 2025-08-25 | | | ...

生猪日报 | 2025-08-22 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、8月21日，生猪注册仓单430手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日减仓741手，持仓约6.99万手，今日最高价 13815元/吨，最低价13725元/吨，收盘于13765元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①现下降重利好后市；②现货价格韧性强，说明供需不像空头 想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪消 费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）150 ...

生猪日报 | 2025-08-21 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、8月20日，生猪注册仓单430手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日增仓2684手，持仓约7.06万手，今日最高价 13900元/吨，最低价13685元/吨，收盘于13775元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①现下降重利好后市；②现货价格韧性强，说明供需不像空头 想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪消 费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）15 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the pig price will have an oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, weakening the willingness of retail farmers to reduce pig weight and providing some support for pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may have an oscillatory adjustment, which is somewhat beneficial to the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 18, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its positions by 6,351 lots today, with a position of about 71,200 lots. The highest price today was 13,975 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,750 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,820 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase oscillatingly in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that current weight reduction is beneficial for the future, strong resilience of the spot price indicating that supply - demand is not as loose as the short - side thinks, and although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is as described above, and it is recommended to wait and see for the 11 - contract considering its slight premium over the spot price [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On August 18, the national live pig slaughter price was 13.64 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan or 0.22% from August 15. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan remained unchanged [6]. - Among futures prices, the prices of all contracts decreased compared with August 15, with the decline ranging from 0.38% to 1.34% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 5 yuan or 3.7% compared with August 15 [6].

1、8月13日，生猪注册仓单430手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪继续降重幅度； 3、生猪主力合约（LH2511）今日增仓5348手，持仓约6.62万手，今日最高价 14240元/吨，最低价13975元/吨，收盘于14045元/吨。 生猪日报 | 2025-08-14 另存为PDF 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢且有难度，供应压力尚未完全释 放；②后续出栏量有望持续增加；③三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支 撑有限；多头：①现下降重利好后市；②现货价格韧性强，说明供需不像空头 想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐进入生猪消 费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡调整； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）15 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually by December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is stabilizing and rebounding, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner, which is slightly beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 12, the registered warehouse receipts for live pigs were 410 lots. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline. Attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 1,419 lots today, with a position of approximately 60,900 lots. The highest price today was 14,300 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,140 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,230 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in an oscillatory manner in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard pigs may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. - Market bearish and bullish logics: - Bearish: ① The weight reduction of the farming sector is slow and difficult, and the supply pressure has not been fully released; ② The subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; ③ It is not yet the peak consumption season in the third quarter, and the demand's support for pig prices is limited. - Bullish: ① There is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support pig prices; ② The spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; ③ Although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters will gradually enter the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - View: Oscillatory adjustment. - Core logic: - Based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month - by - month until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector). With abundant supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded. Seasonally, this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices to a certain extent. - If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keeps the weight stable in the future, the pig price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner, which is beneficial to the November contract to a certain extent. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - **Live Pig Slaughter Price**: The national average price on August 12 was 13.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg (- 0.22%) from the previous day. The price in Henan was 13.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg (0.29%); the price in Sichuan was 13.31 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. - **Futures Price**: The prices of most futures contracts showed an upward trend, with the 11 - contract rising by 90 yuan/ton (0.64%) to 14,230 yuan/ton. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis in Henan was - 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton (- 11.11%) from the previous day [6].

| | | 另存为PDF | | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪周报 | | 2025-08-11 | | | 分享 | | | | 作者： | | | 【出栏体重持续下降 后市预期向好】 | 史香迎 | | | 【市场动态】 | 生猪分析师 | | | 1、8月8日，生猪注册仓单380手； | | | | 2、涌益样本养殖企业7月计划出栏完成率97.11%，8月计划+6.6%；整体看8月日均出栏压力明显大于7月； | 期货从业资格：F03086321 | | | 3、本周生猪合约（LH2511）受现下降重利好后市影响震荡上行，收盘于14180元/吨，持仓量约6.02万手。 | 交易咨询资格：Z0019355 | | | 【基本面分析】 | | | | 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，下半年生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加； | 邮箱地址： | | | 需求端来看，下半年消费比上半年好； | shixy@hrrdqh.com | | | 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡走强； | | | | | 联系方式： | | | 3、市场多空逻辑 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a shock adjustment. The core logic is that from sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 380 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. The live pig contract (LH2511) increased its positions by 626 lots today, with a position of about 59,600 lots. The highest price today was 14,170 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,920 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,100 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a shock. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in a shock. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory to support pig prices, strong resilience of spot prices indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the short - side thinks, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited while the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector), so pig prices are difficult to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see (for reference only, not constituting investment advice) [4]. Market Overview - On August 7, 2025, compared with August 6, 2025, the 01 - contract price of live pigs increased by 85 yuan to 14,395 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.59%; the 03 - contract price increased by 40 yuan to 13,375 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.3%; the 05 - contract price remained unchanged at 13,895 yuan/ton; the 07 - contract price decreased by 10 yuan to 14,405 yuan/ton, with a decrease rate of 0.07%; the 09 - contract price increased by 60 yuan to 13,870 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.43%; the 11 - contract price increased by 90 yuan to 14,100 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.64% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price differences between the 11 - 01 contracts over different time periods [14].