基本面多空消息并存，工业硅仍维持底部震荡

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak and volatile [1] - Polysilicon: Volatile and bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have both positive and negative news, and it remains in a bottom - oscillating state. The price of industrial silicon has hit a new low, and it is currently in a stage of long - short game. The price of polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is in a state of bullish oscillation [1][2][3][4] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see; for polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon is 10,100 - 10,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. In February, industrial silicon production decreased to 289,500 tons, a reduction of 10,000 tons from January. The production in Sichuan and Yunnan has dropped to historical lows, with Sichuan's production at only 3,000 tons. Some production capacities in the northwest region have resumed production recently, and the supply pressure of industrial silicon has become prominent again. The production cost in the southwest region has reached the annual high due to the high electricity cost during the dry season, but the cost support for silicon prices is limited [2] - The inventory pressure is large. This week's inventory decreased by 0.5 tons compared with last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 594,000 tons [2] Downstream Demand Side - In the polysilicon sector, production continued to decline in February, reaching about 90,000 tons. With the expectation of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic industry, polysilicon production has been continuously decreasing. However, with better downstream production scheduling recently, the probability of large - scale production cuts is small, and the demand for industrial silicon has stabilized marginally [2] - In the organic silicon DMC sector, some manufacturers plan to start the production - cut mode, and the production is expected to continue to decline, leading to a decrease in the demand for industrial silicon [2] - In the alloy silicon sector, the price has been boosted, but the consumption is small and cannot support the market, so the demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Transaction Logic - Industrial silicon production is still at a high level. The production of downstream polysilicon has stabilized, and the consumption of industrial silicon has also stabilized. The consumption of industrial silicon by organic silicon has weakened, and the consumption by silicon - aluminum alloy has remained stable. High inventory suppresses the price of industrial silicon. Although the photovoltaic industry has an improvement expectation, it is currently in a long - short game stage [4] Polysilicon Supply Side - The spot price of polysilicon remains stable. The production of polysilicon in February decreased to 90,000 tons, which strongly supports the price. Under the premise of industry self - discipline, each polysilicon factory produces according to the quota, and the production will not fluctuate significantly [3] Downstream Demand Side - The production of downstream silicon wafers shows signs of stabilization and recovery, and the price has increased slightly. The inventory of silicon wafers is in the destocking cycle, and the inventory is being removed quickly, which supports the price. The production scheduling of downstream battery cells and components in April is good, which also supports the polysilicon market [3] Transaction Logic - The production of polysilicon has stabilized at the bottom, the downstream demand has an improvement expectation, and the inventory is still in the destocking cycle. In the short term, there is insufficient driving force for polysilicon to rise, and it shows a bullish oscillation [4]