能源化工日报-2025-04-02

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - PVC is expected to experience low - level, weak oscillations due to factors such as weak demand, over - capacity, and high inventory. The price is likely to face pressure around 5200 yuan/ton [2]. - For caustic soda, the upward drive of the futures market is insufficient, but the downward movement is also cautious. Attention should be paid to factors like inventory and alumina production [3]. - Urea prices are supported by seasonal inventory reduction. Although supply remains abundant, the smooth inventory reduction process drives up the average price [4][6]. - Methanol prices are expected to move within a range of 2500 - 2650 yuan/ton, with both domestic and port inventories decreasing, but the high price has limited downstream acceptance [7]. Summary by Product PVC - Prices: On April 1, the PVC main 05 - contract closed at 5099 yuan/ton (+20), with different market prices in different regions [2]. - Supply and Demand: Long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate market and export restrictions. Supply is under pressure with new investment plans and high - level caustic soda production. Currently, maintenance is limited, and export is stable through price cuts [2]. - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, with attention on new production, spring maintenance, downstream resumption, and policies [2]. Caustic Soda - Prices: On April 1, the caustic soda main SH05 - contract closed at 2515 yuan/ton (+3), and there were price adjustments in the Shandong market [3]. - Inventory: As of March 27, 2025, the inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [3]. - Outlook: The upward drive is limited, but the downward movement is cautious. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and alumina production [3]. Urea - Prices: The main contract rose 3.27% to close at 1929 yuan/ton, with different spot prices in different regions [4]. - Supply: The national urea operating rate was 84.83%, and the daily output decreased slightly to 19.4 million tons [4]. - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased, and industrial demand was stable. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased by 210,000 tons, and the port inventory was basically unchanged [4][6]. - Outlook: Supply remains abundant, but inventory reduction supports price increases. Attention should be paid to factors such as equipment maintenance, compound fertilizer production, and export policies [6]. Methanol - Prices: The main contract fell 0.76% to close at 2486 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market decreased by 52 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants was 84.06%, and the weekly output was 1.8268 billion tons [7]. - Demand: The methanol - to - olefin operating rate decreased, and traditional demand did not improve significantly [7]. - Inventory: Both enterprise and port inventories decreased. The enterprise inventory was 236,200 tons, and the port inventory was 773,800 tons [7]. - Outlook: Prices are expected to move within a range, with attention on factors such as the macro - environment, equipment maintenance, and international crude oil prices [7].