Guoyuan Securities·2025-04-02 01:23Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor industry, specifically highlighting the potential for recovery in the IGBT market [5]. Core Insights - The IGBT market is showing signs of recovery, with shipments expected to return to positive growth by Q2 2024, indicating the end of the industry downturn. IGBT prices have stabilized after a nearly 30% year-on-year decline in Q1 2024, suggesting a potential upward trend in prices and continued growth in shipments [1][11]. - China's IGBT self-sufficiency is improving, driven by capacity expansion and technological advancements among domestic manufacturers. The report anticipates a shift in the silicon carbide (SiC) market towards oversupply in 2024, leading to a decline in SiC prices [2][12]. - Demand for IGBT is expected to rise due to increased sales of mid-range electric vehicles (EVs) and the penetration of 800V platforms, which will enhance the adoption of SiC in higher-end models. The price gap between SiC and IGBT modules is projected to narrow significantly by 2026, facilitating broader application [3][13]. Summary by Sections Overall Viewpoint - The IGBT market is entering a recovery phase, with signs of demand resurgence and price stabilization. The report highlights the importance of the automotive sector in driving IGBT demand, particularly in the context of electric vehicles [11][20]. IGBT Industry Improvement and SiC Adoption - The report emphasizes the critical role of power semiconductors in various applications, including electric vehicles and industrial control. The IGBT market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 11.23% from 2023 to 2030 [16][23]. Capacity Side: China's IGBT Self-Sufficiency and SiC Price Decline - China's IGBT production is forecasted to increase from 15.5 million units in 2019 to 39 million units by 2024, with a self-sufficiency rate expected to rise as domestic manufacturers enhance their capabilities [31][33]. The SiC market is anticipated to experience a shift towards oversupply, leading to price reductions [12][33]. Demand Side: Mid-Range Vehicle Demand Boosting IGBT and SiC Adoption - The report notes a significant increase in global and Chinese EV sales, with projections indicating continued growth. The demand for IGBT is expected to be bolstered by the rising sales of mid-range EVs, which are more cost-sensitive and likely to continue using IGBT technology in the short term [44][45]. The penetration of 800V platforms is also highlighted as a key driver for SiC adoption in higher-end models [50]. Competitive Landscape - The report outlines the competitive dynamics in the IGBT market, noting that while overseas manufacturers currently dominate, Chinese companies are gradually increasing their market share through technological advancements and capacity expansions [13][15]. Companies to Watch - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Sijia Semiconductor, Times Electric, Silan Microelectronics, China Resources Microelectronics, Sanan Optoelectronics, and others for potential investment opportunities [4].