国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-2025-04-02

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron Ore: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][6] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Sentiment has improved, with short - term rebounds expected [2][7] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Due to the resonance of the black sector, it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2][12] - Manganese Silicide: Disturbed by ore - end information, it will have a slight rebound [2][13] - Coke: The expectation of price increases is rising, and the trend is oscillating strongly [2][17] - Coking Coal: Expected to be oscillating strongly [2][17] - Steam Coal: With high - level inventory, prices are under pressure [2][21] - Glass: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][25] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price Data: The closing price of I2505 was 792.0 yuan/ton, up 19.0 yuan/ton with a 2.46% increase. The import prices of some ores decreased slightly, while the price of domestic Tangshan ore increased by 2.0 yuan/ton [5] - News: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from February, reaching a new high since December 2024 [5] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price Data: The closing price of RB2505 was 3,170 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%); HC2505 was 3,359 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.24%). Some spot prices increased [7] - News: In the weekly data on March 28, rebar production increased by 1.22 tons, hot - rolled coil by 0.42 tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 17.89 tons, hot - rolled coil by 13.94 tons; apparent demand of rebar increased by 2.33 tons, hot - rolled coil by 8.04 tons. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2 [7][8][9] - Trend Intensity: 1 for both, indicating a moderately strong trend [10] Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide - Price Data: The closing prices of silicon ferrosilicon 2504 and 2505 were 5958 and 5984 yuan/ton respectively; manganese silicide 2504 and 2505 were 6274 and 6146 yuan/ton respectively. Some spot prices changed [13] - News: The prices of some silicon ferrosilicon and silicon manganese products changed. UMK will export manganese ore by rail due to decreased demand. South Africa's manganese ore exports in February decreased compared to the same period last year [14][15] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [16] Coke and Coking Coal - Price Data: The closing prices of JM2505 and J2505 were 1008 and 1648 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 19.5 yuan/ton (1.97%) and 65.5 yuan/ton (4.14%). Some spot prices remained stable [17] - News: Some metallurgical coal index prices changed. On April 1, in the top 20 member positions of DCE, the long positions of JM2505 decreased by 17475 hands, and the short positions decreased by 16291 hands; for J2505, the long positions increased by 1222 hands, and the short positions increased by 1525 hands [17][18][19] - Trend Intensity: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [19] Steam Coal - Price Data: ZC2504 had no trading on the previous day. The previous opening price was 931.6000 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6000 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0000 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [22] - News: There were price quotes for southern port foreign - trade steam coal and domestic steam coal production areas. On April 1, in the top 20 member positions of ZCE, the long and short positions of ZC2504 decreased by 0 hands [23] - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24] Glass - Price Data: The closing price of FG505 was 1235, up 4.04%. Some spot prices increased [25] - News: The domestic float glass original sheet was mainly stable, with price increases in the Shahe and Hubei markets. The sales of some float glass factories improved [25] - Trend Intensity: 1, indicating a moderately strong trend [25]