宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-04-02

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the methanol 2505 contract will show a bullish - oscillating trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are expected to be oscillating, with an intraday bias towards the bullish side [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2505 contract showed a bullish - oscillating trend in the night session on Tuesday, with the futures price slightly rising 0.08% to 2485 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a bullish - oscillating trend on Wednesday [5]. Driving Factors - Seasonal maintenance is beneficial to methanol, but the impact is weaker compared to the same period in previous years. Domestic methanol enterprises have entered the peak spring maintenance period, with the device load dropping for two consecutive weeks, but the weekly output is still increasing year - on - year. The scale of spring maintenance has been shrinking in recent years, and it is expected to drop to 5 million tons this year [5]. - The conflict between the US and Iran has escalated. As the US threatens to bomb Iran and Iran responds strongly, there is a risk of disruptions to Iran's methanol exports, increasing the expectation of a decline in imports [1][5].