Report Date - The report is dated April 2, 2025 [1][5][10] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. The market is influenced by factors such as US tariff policies, economic data, and geopolitical tensions [2][4][5] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Reached a new high. The Shanghai gold futures contract 2504 closed at 736.30 yuan, up 0.89% [2][5] - Silver: Declined due to the impact of non - ferrous metals. The Shanghai silver futures contract 2504 closed at 8412 yuan, down 0.84% [2][5] Base Metals - Copper: The market is cautious, waiting for the US to impose tariffs. The Shanghai copper futures contract closed at 80,430 yuan, up 0.60% [2][10] - Aluminum: Traded in a high - level range. The Shanghai aluminum futures contract closed at 20,525 yuan [2][13] - Alumina: Prices are under pressure. The Shanghai alumina futures contract closed at 2951 yuan [2][13] - Zinc: Traded under pressure, with attention on tariff disturbances. The Shanghai zinc futures contract closed at 23,615 yuan, up 0.68% [2][16] - Lead: Weak in the medium - term. The Shanghai lead futures contract closed at 17,410 yuan, down 0.20% [2][19] - Nickel: The cost of pyrometallurgy is supported by nickel ore, and the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has not materialized. The Shanghai nickel futures contract closed at 130,360 yuan [2][22] - Stainless Steel: The short - term is dominated by cost logic, while there is still pressure on supply and demand in the medium - term. The Shanghai stainless steel futures contract closed at 13,545 yuan [2][23] - Tin: Continued to rise. The Shanghai tin futures contract closed at 287,480 yuan, up 1.82% [2][27] Energy and Chemicals - Industrial Silicon: The futures market is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. The Si2505 contract closed at 9,790 yuan [2][32] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the number of warehouse receipts today. The PS2506 contract closed at 43,560 yuan [2][33] - Carbonate Lithium: The fundamental weakness remains, and there is a downward drive in the futures market. The 2505 contract closed at 74,360 yuan [2][36] - Iron Ore: Traded in a volatile manner. The I2505 contract closed at 792.0 yuan, up 2.46% [2][41] - Rebar: Sentiment improved, with a short - term rebound. The RB2505 contract closed at 3,170 yuan, down 0.09% [2][43] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Sentiment improved, with a short - term rebound. The HC2505 contract closed at 3,359 yuan, up 0.24% [2][43] - Silicon Ferroalloy: Traded in a wide range due to the resonance of the black metal sector. The silicon ferroalloy 2505 contract closed at 5984 yuan [2][48] - Manganese Ferroalloy: Saw a slight rebound due to information disturbances at the ore end. The manganese ferroalloy 2505 contract closed at 6146 yuan [2][49] - Coke: There is a growing expectation of price increases, and it traded with a bullish bias. The J2505 contract closed at 1648 yuan, up 4.14% [2][52] - Coking Coal: Traded with a bullish bias. The JM2505 contract closed at 1008 yuan, up 1.97% [2][52] - Steam Coal: High - level inventory is putting pressure on prices. The ZC2504 contract had no trading volume yesterday [2][56] - Glass: The price of the original sheet remained stable. The FG505 contract closed at 1235 yuan, up 4.04% [2][60] - Para - Xylene (PX): Go long on PX and short on PTA. The PX主力 contract closed at 6986 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - PTA: With short - fiber production cuts, go long on PF and short on PTA. The PTA主力 contract closed at 4894 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - MEG: Supply has contracted, and it has rebounded from the bottom. Go long on MEG and short on PTA. The MEG主力 contract closed at 4515 yuan on April 1, 2025 [2][62] - Synthetic Rubber: The price of butadiene increased slightly, providing support for the market. [2][30] - Asphalt: Stabilized and traded in a range, with attention on inventory and inter - regional price differences. [2][32] - LLDPE: Traded in a short - term range, with pressure in the later period. [2][34] - PP: The price increased slightly, with average trading volume. [2][36] - Caustic Soda: Traded mainly in a range, with attention on export demand. [2][37] - Log: Traded in a volatile manner. [2][39] - Methanol: Traded under pressure. [2][41] - Urea: The near - month contract is strong, while the far - month contract is under pressure. [2][43] - Styrene: Stop - loss on short positions. [2][45] - Soda Ash: There were few changes in the spot market. [2][46] - LPG: Followed the oil price and traded in a narrow range. [2][47] - PVC: Traded in a low - level range. [2][50] Agricultural Products - Fuel Oil: Continued to rise at night, with short - term strength. [2][52] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Rebounded following the crude oil price, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas market continued to widen. [2][52] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Hold the 6 - 10 positive spread, 8 - 10 positive spread, and 10 - 12 negative spread positions. [2][53] - Short - Fiber: Maintenance was implemented, and the processing margin expanded. [2][56] - Bottle Chip: Traded in a range, with a weak structure. [2][56] - Palm Oil: There is no obvious inventory pressure for now, and the near - term is strong. [2][57] - Soybean Oil: Supported by US biodiesel policies and tariffs, the price of US soybean oil rose. [2][57] - Soybean Meal: The rise in US soybean oil stimulated the increase in US soybean prices, and the domestic soybean meal followed the rebound. [2][59] - Soybean: Rebounded following the soybean market. [2][59] - Corn: Traded in a range. [2][61] - Sugar: Traded with a bullish bias. [2][63] - Cotton: Pay attention to the impact of macro - events. [2][64] - Egg: Traded weakly. [2][66] - Live Pig: The expectation of price decline has been realized in advance. [2][67] - Peanut: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. [2][68] Trend Intensity - Gold: 0 [8] - Silver: - 1 [8] - Copper: 0 [12] - Aluminum: 0 [15] - Alumina: 0 [15] - Zinc: - 1 [17] - Lead: - 1 [20] - Nickel: 0 [26] - Stainless Steel: 0 [26] - Tin: 1 [31] - Industrial Silicon: - 1 [35] - Polysilicon: 1 [35] - Carbonate Lithium: - 1 [39] - Iron Ore: 0 [41] - Rebar: 1 [46] - Hot - Rolled Coil: 1 [46] - Silicon Ferroalloy: 0 [51] - Manganese Ferroalloy: 0 [51] - Coke: 0 [54] - Coking Coal: 0 [54] - Steam Coal: 0 [59] - Glass: 1 [60] - Para - Xylene (PX): 1 [66] - PTA: 1 [66] - MEG: 1 [66]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-2025-04-02
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-04-02 02:29