可转债二季度策略：成长股行情下的投资机会

Core Insights - The report highlights that the convertible bond market experienced a significant rally in Q1 2025, primarily driven by the technology sector and small-cap stocks, with convertible bonds outperforming expectations due to a 60% increase relative to their underlying stocks, surpassing the median elasticity of 40% [2][3][6] - The sustainability of the technology stock rally is a key focus for Q2, with expectations of potential consolidation after a rapid increase in stock prices, indicating that the current growth trend may not be over but could face short-term adjustments [2][25][69] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In Q1 2025, convertible bonds saw a broad increase, benefiting from the recovery in technology and small-cap styles, with a notable contribution from bond adjustments [2][6][9] - The overall performance of convertible bonds was characterized by a risk-return profile that remained balanced, with equity assets ending their weak phase [12][18] Investment Strategy - Timing: The report suggests that a good buying opportunity for TMT stocks will arise after a correction of approximately 15%, recommending gradual accumulation of positions as the market adjusts [4][66] - Selection: TMT and emerging cycle convertible bonds exhibit the highest elasticity in a growth market, with strong debt protection, suggesting that bonds priced below 110 yuan have significant investment value [4][69] Valuation and Risk Assessment - The valuation of convertible bonds is currently considered high, with future price movements largely dependent on the performance of underlying stocks, although a solid floor exists due to the significant decline in risk-free yields enhancing the bond floor [3][53][68] - The report indicates that the risk of credit downgrades or significant interest rate increases is currently low, with historical data showing that downgrades typically do not exceed 5% in a quarter [3][68] Focus Areas for Q2 - The technology sector is expected to continue its upward trend, although a phase of consolidation may occur, with historical patterns suggesting a typical adjustment period of around 15% after initial rapid gains [25][28][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of convertible bonds in relation to their underlying stocks, particularly in light of the recent market dynamics and potential adjustments [53][69]