合成橡胶：丁二烯小幅调涨，震荡有支撑

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The static valuation range of the synthetic rubber futures fundamentals is 12,800 - 13,800 yuan/ton. Due to the neutral fundamentals of butadiene, the dynamic valuation range is expected to fluctuate mainly. The upper valuation high of the fundamentals is around 13,700 - 13,800 yuan/ton on the disk. When the main BR2405 contract has a premium of about 200 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong area, there is a risk - free arbitrage space of holding spot and shorting the disk, which will increase the pressure on the upper space of the disk. The butadiene is expected to support the price of cis - butadiene rubber from the cost side, and the theoretical valuation bottom range of the disk is 12,800 yuan/ton [1][3]. - In the short term, butadiene shows a pattern of fluctuating with support. Low - price spot has demand support, and some enterprises raised their quotes by 100 yuan/ton yesterday. Against the background of continuous rise in crude oil and a slight increase in butadiene, it supports the cis - butadiene rubber futures [3]. 3) Summary According to the Catalog [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Market: The closing price of the main cis - butadiene rubber contract (05 contract) increased by 65 yuan/ton to 13,600 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 16,107 lots to 86,377 lots, the open interest decreased by 3,164 lots to 27,477 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 109,684 ten - thousand yuan to 585,363 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - Spread Data: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract decreased by 65 to 100, the monthly spread of BR04 - BR05 increased by 25 to - 50. The prices of cis - butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, and the market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 13,700 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502 and 1712) remained unchanged, the mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 11,100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 11,250 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 0.96 percentage points to 58.9261%, the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 103 yuan/ton to 14,036 yuan/ton, and the profit of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 103 yuan/ton to - 236 yuan/ton [1]. [Industry News] - The static and dynamic valuation ranges of the synthetic rubber futures fundamentals are analyzed, and the upper and lower valuation limits are given. The cost - based calculation of the full cost of cis - butadiene rubber is also provided [1][3]. - The short - term trend of butadiene is analyzed, and it is pointed out that the cis - butadiene rubber futures is supported by the rise of butadiene and crude oil. Attention should be paid to the transaction volume of butadiene and the explicit inventory data of synthetic rubber and butadiene [3]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].