铜冠金源期货商品日报-2025-04-02

Group 1: General Market Overview - A - share trading volume is shrinking, and market sentiment is cooling. The market may continue to avoid risks related to Trump's tariff policies and a marginal slowdown in the economic fundamentals in early April. The bond market shows tight liquidity, with both short - and long - term bond yields rising [2][3] - The US economic data is mixed, with manufacturing PMI slightly weakening and the employment market relatively stable. The US dollar index is stable, and the macro - impact is limited [18] - The "equivalent tariff" policy in the US is about to be announced, and countries such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU have expressed their stances, with some warning of counter - measures [2] Group 2: Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices fell slightly on Tuesday. Gold and silver may face correction risks after the tariff policy is implemented due to profit - taking and a possible shift in trading logic [4][5] Group 3: Copper - US manufacturing PMI has returned to the contraction range, and the risk of stagflation is increasing. Overseas investment banks expect the benchmark tariff rate to reach 10% - 15%. The cancellation of the arbitration of the Panama copper mine may lead to its possible复产 this year, and domestic copper production is rising. Copper prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [6][7] Group 4: Aluminum - Macroeconomic factors dominate, and aluminum prices are under pressure. Although the fundamentals show some support on the supply side, the concerns about demand due to the US manufacturing PMI contraction and tariff uncertainty lead to a decline in market risk sentiment, and aluminum prices are oscillating [8][9] Group 5: Alumina - Alumina has sufficient supply, weak consumption elasticity, and an oversupply situation. The cost support may weaken, and it is expected to continue its weak operation [10] Group 6: Zinc - The market is focused on the tariff details. Zinc prices are under pressure due to the expected significant increase in refined zinc supply in April. However, the low - level restocking by downstream enterprises and low inventory provide some weak support, and zinc prices are expected to operate weakly [11] Group 7: Lead - The production of electrolytic lead and recycled lead in March exceeded expectations, and it is expected to increase slightly in April. The downstream battery market is in the off - season, and lead prices are expected to run weakly, with attention paid to the performance near the 40 - day moving average [12] Group 8: Tin - Due to the postponement of the tin mine复产 meeting in Myanmar and the uncertain复产 time of the Congo - Kinshasa mine, tin prices have reached new highs this year. However, the consumption growth rate cannot match the price increase, and there is a large supply - demand contradiction. Caution is needed when chasing the price [13][14] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon is slowly recovering, and the high inventory drags down the spot market. The demand shows a weak recovery, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The supply of domestic lithium salts is expected to have limited growth, and the demand from cathode manufacturers is gradually expanding. However, due to the high inventory pressure, the price is oscillating at a low level [16] Group 11: Nickel - The Indonesian tax reform policy has been delayed, and potential risks remain. Although steel mills' stainless - steel production in April is still at a high level, attention should be paid to the production compliance rate under high - inventory pressure. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [18] Group 12: Crude Oil - Attention should be paid to the US - Iran negotiations. In the medium - to - long term, there is a bearish expectation due to OPEC + production increases, and oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [19] Group 13: Steel Products - Steel futures rebounded on Tuesday, and spot trading volume increased. However, the demand growth rate is expected to slow down in April, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [20] Group 14: Iron Ore - Port inventory has increased, and overseas shipments and arrivals have also increased. The growth rate of molten iron production has slowed down, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [21][22] Group 15: Bean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans rose due to policy support, but domestic bean and rapeseed meal prices fell. With a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving, the spot price is under pressure. Both are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the upcoming tariff policy [23][24] Group 16: Palm Oil - US biodiesel policy may increase production, boosting the price of US soybean oil and domestic palm oil. Palm oil is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the continuation of the policy's impact [25] Group 17: Metal Trading Data - Presented the closing data of major metal futures contracts on Tuesday, including prices, changes, trading volumes, and open interests [26] Group 18: Industrial Data - Provided the daily changes in industrial data of various metals from April 1 to March 31, such as warehouse receipts, inventory, spot prices, and price spreads [27][30][32]