铅：利多不涨，谨防补跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals continue to strengthen under macro - driving, but the non - ferrous metals sector has a downward trend due to the divergence of industrial demand from precious metals. The current downstream acceptance of high - priced lead is relatively limited, the spot premium has weakened marginally, the primary supply remains high, and the positive factors of tight recycled raw materials and environmental inspections have been gradually digested by the market. After a large number of cancelled warehouse receipts overseas, the market's reaction to the positive factors is relatively limited. The lead price lacks the impetus to rise, and there is still a large risk of decline in the future [1][30] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Supply - In 2025, the tight situation of lead ore may improve marginally. Large lead - zinc mine projects such as Huoshaoyun in China and Jipushi in Africa are put into production, which is expected to increase the lead ore supply marginally and raise the lead concentrate TC. Lead smelting enterprises have a high willingness to start production due to the high prices of by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid. As of early March 2025, the weekly operating rate of primary lead smelters under the SMM caliber reached 66%, which is a significant increase compared with the same period in previous years, and the supply of primary lead ingots is expected to be loose [2] 3.2 Recycled Supply - Although the "reverse invoicing" policy of the State Administration of Taxation standardizes the waste battery recycling process, the short - term supply gap of waste materials is still large, which restricts the utilization rate of recycled lead production capacity. The rising price of waste batteries provides strong support for the lower limit of the lead price. In addition, policies such as "air pollution prevention and control" force smelting enterprises to upgrade equipment, and some small and medium - sized enterprises may withdraw from the market due to non - compliance with environmental protection requirements. Sudden events such as environmental inspections and production restrictions may suppress the supply of recycled lead periodically. In the medium term, the supply of recycled lead ingots will tighten marginally [9] 3.3 Lead Ingot Demand 3.3.1 Power Battery Consumption - The "trade - in" policy proposed during the Two Sessions will significantly benefit the demand for lead - acid batteries. In 2024, the number of electric bicycles traded in nationwide exceeded 1.38 million, and from January to February 2025, the number reached 1.019 million. It is expected that the consumption of lead ingots brought by power batteries will increase steadily [13] 3.3.2 Starting Battery Consumption - Most domestic automobiles use lead - acid batteries as starting power sources, and the booming new - energy vehicle industry is expected to provide the main incremental demand for lead ingots. However, on March 26, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and light trucks. In 2024, China's automobile exports to the US were 116,000, accounting for only 1.8% of China's total automobile exports and 0.4% of domestic sales. Therefore, the direct impact of tariffs on domestic lead ingot demand is small, but it suppresses the global lead ingot consumption expectation to some extent [13] 3.3.3 Fixed Battery Consumption - Supported by special bonds, the construction of communication base stations and urban renewal projects is accelerating. 5G base station construction and data centers need a large number of lead - acid batteries as backup power sources. Although the single - consumption of fixed batteries is low, they are still expected to bring some incremental consumption of lead ingots [14] 3.3.4 Short - term Demand - In the short term, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has dropped slightly to 73.86%. The off - season of downstream lead - acid battery consumption has arrived, the finished product inventory of dealers remains at a high level over the years, and the willingness of battery enterprises and dealers to pick up goods is relatively limited, resulting in a marginal weakening of the domestic spot [17] 3.4 Disk Structure 3.4.1 Domestic Monthly Spread - The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 61,200 tons, and the domestic social inventory remains flat at 69,100 tons. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots is 17,150 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead is 17,125 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and waste is 25 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries is 10,275 yuan/ton. The domestic primary basis is - 205 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract is - 45 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 Overseas Monthly Spread - The LME lead ingot inventory is 231,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts are 131,600 tons. The basis of the outer - market cash - 3S contract is - 1 US dollar/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference is - 54.1 US dollars/ton. On March 26 and 27, the LME market cancelled 118,800 tons of warehouse receipts continuously, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased sharply to less than 100,000 tons [29] 3.4.3 Cross - Market Spread - After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the disk is 1.191, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots is - 528.21 yuan/ton [30] 3.4.4 Single - Side Price - The precious metals continue to strengthen under macro - driving, but the non - ferrous metals sector has a downward trend due to the divergence of industrial demand from precious metals. The current downstream acceptance of high - priced lead is relatively limited, the spot premium has weakened marginally, the primary supply remains high, and the positive factors of tight recycled raw materials and environmental inspections have been gradually digested by the market. After a large number of cancelled warehouse receipts overseas, the market's reaction to the positive factors is relatively limited. The lead price lacks the impetus to rise, and there is still a large risk of decline in the future [30]