ZHONGSHENG HLDG(00881) 海通证券·2025-04-02 05:16Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The new car business is under pressure, while the after-sales service and used car business are developing steadily [7]. - The company achieved a revenue of 168.1 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and a net profit of 3.21 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year [7]. - The company focuses on key urban areas to enhance performance resilience and has opened 37 AITO stores in collaboration with Seres for its new energy vehicle business [7]. Financial Data and Forecast - Total revenue is projected to be 183.52 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, followed by a forecasted revenue of 168.12 billion yuan in 2024, down 6% [6]. - Net profit is expected to decrease significantly to 3.21 billion yuan in 2024, a 36% decline, before recovering to 3.77 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 17% increase [6]. - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to improve from 6.35% in 2024 to 11.91% by 2027 [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.35 yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.49 yuan by 2027 [6]. Business Segments - The new car sales volume in 2024 is expected to be 485,000 units, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, with revenue from new car sales at 125.3 billion yuan, down 10.6% [7]. - The used car business is showing robust growth, with sales expected to reach 226,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 37.9%, contributing 15.4 billion yuan in revenue [7]. - After-sales service revenue is projected to reach 22 billion yuan in 2024, a 9.6% increase, marking a historical high [7].