新能源及有色金属日报：碳酸锂过剩压力仍较大，关注后续消费排产情况-2025-04-02

Report Information - Report Date: April 2, 2025 [18] - Analysts: Shi Cheng, Chen Sijie, Feng Fan [19] - Contact Person: Wang Yuwu [20] Market Analysis - On April 1, 2025, the main contract 2505 of lithium carbonate opened at 74,220 yuan/ton and closed at 74,360 yuan/ton, with a 0.49% increase from the previous settlement price [1] - The trading volume was 77,235 lots, and the open interest was 203,726 lots, a decrease of 6,885 lots from the previous trading day [1] - The total open interest of all contracts was 355,825 lots, a decrease of 6,762 lots from the previous trading day, and the total trading volume decreased by 12,413 lots [1] - The overall speculation degree was 0.29, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 19,135 lots, a decrease of 1,380 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, on April 1, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,400 - 74,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,650 - 72,650 yuan/ton, also up 100 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - It is estimated that the domestic lithium carbonate production in April will remain stable at a high level, with a change range of about 1% - 2% [2] - The supply of lithium hydroxide is highly concentrated, and the production of leading enterprises is relatively stable recently. The production in April is expected to be basically the same as that in March, with a year - on - year decrease of nearly 30% [2] - In April, market demand is expected to continue to grow, but the growth rate may slow down. The production of ternary materials is expected to increase by 7.22% month - on - month [2] - In April, as the lithium - battery market gradually enters the peak season, the production scheduling of phosphoric acid iron enterprises is expected to continue to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 68% [2] - Overall, the spot supply is still at a relatively high level, and there is an expectation of further increase. The spot transaction price shows a pattern of weak and volatile operation [2] - As the price falls, the downstream purchasing sentiment improves. The upstream lithium salt plants still have a certain sentiment of supporting prices, and a small number of lithium salt plants have reduced production, but the oversupply pattern has not been reversed [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Interval operation, sell on rallies for hedging [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear spread options [3]