巴西天气转干，原糖止跌反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range due to the deterioration of the international trade environment, lack of domestic macro - level support, and weak overall industrial performance [2] - Sugar: Zheng sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The short - term price is expected to be firm, and the medium - term price is under pressure due to the expected Brazilian harvest [4][5] - Pulp: The pulp futures price has limited room for further decline as it has reached the support level, but there is no obvious upward driving force currently [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2505 contract was 13,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.37%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,605 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,864 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [1] - Supply - demand in Pakistan: In the 2025/26 season, the sown area is expected to increase by about 5% to 2.1 million hectares, and the total output is expected to increase by 5.7% to about 1.2 million tons. Import demand may decrease by 10.8% to 1.07 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by about 1% to 2.29 million tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 470,000 tons, down about 6.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: Last week, the main contract of US cotton rebounded due to reduced planting area intentions and a weaker US dollar, but the significant decline in export contract volume pressured further price increases. The short - term supply is loose, and demand may be further restricted by Sino - US trade frictions [1] - Domestic: In the 24/25 season, there was an unexpected increase in production in China, and the commercial inventory is at a historically high level. In the 25/26 season, the cotton planting area is expected to increase. The downstream demand has improved slightly in the recent two weeks but is still weak compared to the peak season [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2505 contract was 6,129 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (+0.89%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [3] - Production in India: As of March 31, 2025, in the 2024 - 25 season, 113 sugar mills were still operating, with a cumulative cane crushing volume of 265.326 million tons and a sugar production of 24.85 million tons. In the same period of the previous season, 204 mills were operating, with a cane crushing volume of 298.104 million tons and a sugar production of 30.25 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Raw Sugar: Although there are disputes over India's production, the impact has been mostly reflected in the market. Brazil has had less rainfall since February, but the actual impact of the drought is yet to be evaluated. The production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to increase strongly in the 25/26 season [4] - Zheng Sugar: Driven by the strong rebound of the external market, Zheng sugar once exceeded the previous high. Although the domestic production is increasing this season, the short - term import of sugar is limited, and the control policy of syrup and premixed powder is tightened. The domestic sugar price is expected to be firm in the short term [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2505 contract was 5,638 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] - Market Price Trend: The spot price of imported wood pulp showed a downward trend. The prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong decreased by 20 - 60 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Some overseas pulp mills had maintenance in the first quarter, and the supply was expected to decrease, leading to continued increases in the US dollar quotes from February to March. However, the global shipment volume remained high, and the domestic pulp imports increased significantly from January to February, with a high expected arrival volume in March [7] - Demand: European demand did not improve significantly, and the European wood pulp port inventory remained at a historical high. The domestic downstream peak season was lackluster, and paper mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. There were concerns about the digestion of high - level port inventories [7]