瓶片：供需双增，利润承压，短纤：需求拖累，转机难现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for bottle chips is "sideways", and for staple fibers is also "sideways" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q2 2025, both supply and demand for bottle chips are expected to increase. Despite seasonal peak - demand support, high supply may lead to inventory accumulation, and processing fees will face pressure, but the further compression space is limited. For staple fibers, there may be a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand. Short - term processing fees may strengthen, but there is a risk of decline later [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First - quarter Review of Bottle Chips and Staple Fibers 3.1.1 Bottle Chips - In Q1 2025, the spot and futures prices of bottle chips first rose and then fell, with the price center shifting downward. Processing fees first increased and then decreased. Factories reduced production during the off - season to relieve inventory pressure. Later, prices followed polyester raw materials down, and processing fees slightly recovered due to low industry operation and improved demand. By mid - to late March, processing fees quickly dropped to around 350 yuan/ton [16] 3.1.2 Staple Fibers - In Q1 2025, the price of staple fibers declined, dragged down by falling polyester raw materials and weak supply - demand. The basis strengthened passively, reflecting a pessimistic market outlook. The spot processing fee fluctuated between 1050 - 1200 yuan/ton, and the central value of the disk processing fee decreased. High supply and slow - recovering demand led to the decline in processing fees [18] 3.2 Second - quarter Outlook for Bottle Chips 3.2.1 Supply - In Q2, the operating rate of bottle chips is expected to rise significantly. In Q1, the operating rate was low, and production decreased. In Q2, with the peak - demand season approaching, factories will increase production, and new devices may be put into operation. If inventory accumulates in April, the operating rate may be adjusted downward in May and June [21] 3.2.2 Domestic Demand - Bottle chip demand will seasonally strengthen in Q2. The demand for bottle chips has obvious seasonal characteristics, with the peak from July to August. In 2025, the production of soft drinks, edible oils, and catering revenue all increased year - on - year, providing rigid support for demand. Government consumption - promotion policies are also expected to drive demand growth [31] 3.2.3 Export - In Q1 2025, bottle chip exports increased by 17.5% year - on - year. Exports from Hainan and Liaoning increased significantly. Although there are trade frictions, their impact on overall exports is limited. In Q2, large manufacturers expect an increase in export orders, and export volume may maintain high - speed growth [39][45] 3.3 Second - quarter Outlook for Staple Fibers 3.3.1 Supply - In Q1 2025, the supply pressure of staple fibers was high, with the operating rate and production reaching new highs. New capacity was added in February. In Q2, without considering industry - wide production cuts, factories are willing to maintain high - level operation, but the space for further increase in supply is limited. However, industry self - discipline may lead to production cuts, which could relieve supply pressure if implemented [47][51] 3.3.2 Domestic Demand - In Q1, domestic demand for staple fibers was weak. Retail sales of clothing and textiles increased moderately, but exports were affected by tariff policies. Spinning mill orders were lower than in previous years, and downstream yarn mills had high inventory and low stocking willingness. In Q2, demand may weaken seasonally. Although domestic consumption is expected to grow moderately, export pressure may increase, and weaving operations may face seasonal decline [53][64] 3.3.3 Export - In Q1 2025, staple fiber exports increased by 39.1% year - on - year, mainly due to cost advantages and the upward shift of the industrial chain caused by the relocation of the textile industry. Exports are expected to maintain high - speed growth, and the export volume may increase after Ramadan in April, but the impact on the overall supply - demand pattern is currently limited [67] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - For bottle chips, pay attention to the operating opportunities of disk processing fees in the range of 350 - 450 yuan/ton. For staple fibers, pay attention to the opportunity of short - term repair of disk processing fees and then shorting at high levels [4][69]