研究所晨会观点精萃-2025-04-02

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global market is experiencing increased volatility due to the impending implementation of US tariffs. Gold is expected to be supported in the long - term, while silver lags due to its industrial attributes. The steel and iron ore markets are likely to oscillate in the short - term, and the energy and chemical sectors face uncertainties from tariff policies. The non - ferrous metals are under pressure, and the agricultural products market is influenced by US biofuel policies and supply - demand relationships [2][3][6][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Gold prices are being driven higher by tariff concerns and safe - haven buying. The latest economic data shows a weakening in the manufacturing and labor markets in the US. The Fed's stance and the long - term trends of stagflation and de - dollarization support gold prices. Silver lags due to its industrial attributes. A long - term bullish view on gold is maintained, and mid - to long - term positions can be gradually established on significant pullbacks [2] Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly on Tuesday, with a significant increase in trading volume. The news of export order rectification intensifies market pessimism. Real - world demand remains weak in the short - term, and the market will assess demand in April. Supply is expected to increase further in April, and the market may oscillate in the short - term [3] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded significantly on Tuesday. Pig iron production continues to rise, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, following the trend of steel prices [3] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is fair. The supply of silicon manganese is decreasing due to losses, and the supply of silicon iron remains low. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [4][5] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The US tariff plan and geopolitical tensions have increased concerns about the economy. Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short - term [6] Asphalt - The main asphalt price rebounded slightly with oil prices, but the spot price increase was limited. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate and may follow oil price increases to a limited extent [6] PX - Many Asian PX plants have maintenance plans from April to June. PTA demand is expected to recover after April, and PX prices may have a slight upward space [7] PTA - PTA inventory has been decreasing for four consecutive weeks. The overall start - up rate is slowly rising, and the price may have a slight upward trend in April [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although the port inventory of ethylene glycol is high, it is likely to enter the destocking phase in April. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term [7] Short - fiber - Short - fiber companies have announced industry self - discipline. The price is expected to return to an oscillating pattern [8] Methanol - The port supply - demand situation is okay, and the inventory is decreasing. The price of the near - month contract is strong, while the 09 contract is bearish [9] PP - The downstream of PP is weak, but upstream maintenance is starting, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover [9] LLDPE - The PE downstream is in the peak season, but the demand is limited. The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to oscillate [9] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The domestic Caixin manufacturing PMI has risen. As the "reciprocal tariff" date approaches, the market is worried about the economy. The price of copper may face short - term downward pressure [10] Aluminum - Aluminum ingots and bars are de - stocking, but the market is mainly affected by macro factors and copper price declines, and the short - term outlook is bearish [10] Tin - The cancellation of the mine resumption meeting has led to a sharp increase in tin prices. The supply of tin ore is tight in the medium - to short - term, and the price is expected to be relatively strong [11] Agricultural Products Soybeans - The CBOT soybean oil price has changed, and the US soybean market has risen. The Brazilian soybean production forecast has been lowered [12][13] Soybean Meal - The oil mill's operation rate is at a historical low, and the supply of soybean meal is shrinking. The demand may increase, and the price is expected to oscillate [13] Rapeseed Meal - The domestic aquaculture demand is entering the peak season, but the high inventory is being depleted slowly. The price may rise in the medium - term [13] Soybean Oil - The supply of imported soybeans is expected to improve, and the price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [13] Palm Oil - The international palm oil market is bullish, but the upward space may be limited, and the price may oscillate [14] Rapeseed Oil - The price of rapeseed oil has been driven up by the cost, and the price is expected to remain high in the short - term [14] Hogs - The spot price of hogs is under pressure, and the futures price is also bearish in the short - term [15] Corn - Corn prices are weak due to the influence of wheat and new - season production expectations. The market is expected to remain weak [15]