综合晨报-2025-04-02

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is weighing the supply risks from Russia and Iran and the negative impact on demand from the upcoming US tariffs. The details of Trump's counter - tariffs and specific industry tariffs will be announced at 3 am Beijing time on Thursday [2]. - Various commodities show different trends and are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, geopolitical issues, and tariff policies. Some commodities are in a state of adjustment, while others are facing supply or demand - side pressures [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - Crude Oil: After a sharp rise the previous day, international oil prices fell overnight. The market is considering supply risks and tariff impacts. API data showed an unexpected 603700 - barrel increase in US crude oil inventories last week, and the market expects a 206000 - barrel decline in DOE inventories tonight. The resistance levels of Brent at $74 - 75 per barrel and SC at 550 yuan per barrel are still under attention [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Heavy - oil producing countries like Russia and Iran face US tariffs, making FU more affected in the context of tight global heavy - oil resources. The second - batch export quota of Chinese low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.2 billion tons year - on - year, putting downward pressure on the supply side and narrowing the high - low sulfur spread [21]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Recent refinery overhauls have reduced external supply, and lower domestic import costs and rising crude oil prices have led to an increase in refinery gas prices. The overseas April CP is stable, and the international market is slightly strong. PDH margins are falling, and chemical demand is weakening after the overhaul season. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is oscillating [23]. - Bitumen: Port diluted bitumen inventories have decreased by 30000 tons and are at a historical low. Although the import efficiency of domestic refineries has improved, the refinery operating rate is still at a low - to - medium level. With rising temperatures, demand is expected to improve, and factory inventories have been decreasing for two consecutive weeks. The April inventory reduction pressure is expected to ease. The short - term unilateral trend follows crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - Precious Metals: Gold prices remained strong, and silver continued to diverge after the US announced weaker - than - expected manufacturing PMI and job vacancy data. The upward trend of gold prices continues, but the rapid increase may lead to greater volatility. Empty - position holders are advised to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the US March ADP employment data and tariff policies [3]. - Base Metals: - Copper: Copper prices adjusted overnight, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern. LME copper is worried about counter - tariffs and has closed down for five consecutive days. SHFE copper is adjusting below 80000 yuan. Domestic spot copper has a small premium, and production decline in April is limited due to by - product profits. The market is sensitive to Trump's counter - tariffs, and if LME copper effectively breaks below $9600 - 9700, the adjustment range may expand [4]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate weakly. The inventory removal speed is slightly faster than in previous years, and the apparent consumption is good. The market expects a good performance in the peak season. After the cost reduction, higher profits require greater import expectations. SHFE aluminum oscillates above 20000 yuan, and the short - term is affected by overseas macro factors, with support at the annual - line level [5]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc continued to correct, facing pressure from the 60 - day moving average, and the medium - term downward trend remains unchanged. The zinc concentrate TC in April continues to rise, and smelters are more motivated to produce. Export prospects are affected by "rush - to - export" and accumulated tariffs, and domestic demand depends on infrastructure and manufacturing. The consumption side has resilience but lacks growth. The short - term support is at 23000 yuan per ton, and the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [7]. - Lead: The price of lead - acid batteries did not follow the decline in lead prices, and secondary lead smelters are reluctant to sell. The spread between refined and scrap lead has narrowed to 25 yuan per ton. The operating rates of primary and secondary lead smelters are generally high, and it is the consumption off - season. The replacement demand is weak, and dealers are not very enthusiastic about purchasing. The SMM1 lead price has a real - time discount of 220 yuan per ton to the futures price, indicating average downstream acceptance. In the short term, there is a game between consumption and cost, and SHFE lead has a weak direction, with low trading enthusiasm. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 17200 - 17800 yuan per ton [8]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: SHFE nickel weakened, and the market trading was active. The premium of Jinchuan nickel dropped to 1450 yuan, Russian nickel had a discount of 50 yuan, and electrowon nickel had a discount of 150 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron remained strong, and the Indonesian ore end still affects raw material pricing. Nickel - iron inventory is at a low level of 23000 tons, pure - nickel inventory slightly increased to 47400 tons, and stainless - steel inventory decreased by 10000 tons to 980000 tons. The early - year supply - side and low - price excitement is coming to an end, and high inventory and weak demand are suppressing prices. The main support factor is the nickel - iron price. If nickel - iron weakens, the decline may intensify. Technically, there is buying support below 130000 yuan for SHFE nickel, with a general downward trend, but short - sellers need patience [9]. - Tin: LME tin led the rise overnight. With production risks in the two major supplying countries, the 3050 - ton inventory of LME tin increases the probability of a short - squeeze, and the LME 0 - 3 month premium has rapidly expanded to $264. SHFE tin increased positions significantly at night, and the K - line retraced the gains above 290000 yuan. The warehouse receipts of SHFE tin increased, and the domestic market is also considering the strength of demand. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in low - inventory areas. SHFE tin needs a strong external market to effectively break through 290000 yuan [10]. Agricultural Commodities - Grains and Oilseeds: - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: US soybeans rose due to positive expectations of the US biodiesel policy. The domestic soybean meal basis showed an oscillating decline. The soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, waiting for trading opportunities during the US crop season. There may be weather - related speculation in the US summer, and there is support at the bottom. Soybeans have room for expansion at high prices but are also restricted at the top. In the medium term, soybean meal is expected to move within a range [35]. - Vegetable Oils: US soybean oil rose significantly due to a better - than - expected biodiesel policy. However, the actual raw - material demand for biodiesel is weak, and high raw - material prices may be unfavorable for demand. A large amount of soybeans are expected to arrive in late April, increasing supply - side pressure and posing a risk of an oscillating decline in the soybean oil basis. For palm oil, the performance during the medium - term production - increasing season needs attention, and the price may oscillate. Overall, vegetable oils are expected to oscillate within a range, and there may be opportunities to buy on dips for soybean and palm oils in the medium term [36]. - Corn: The national grain - selling progress is 87%, close to the end and the fastest in the past four years. The supply at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased again, and the spot purchase price has turned down. North - port inventories have been rising, and Northeast corn prices are stable with a slight decline. South - port inventories are decreasing slowly. The concentrated release of grain by holders after the transfer of grain rights may lead to a decline in domestic corn futures [39]. - Livestock and Poultry Products: - Hogs: Hog futures trended weakly with oscillations, and multiple contracts hit new lows. Spot prices fluctuated slightly. The long - term supply pressure remains due to rising production capacity and an increase in the number of newborn piglets in February. Secondary fattening and weight - pressing in the early stage have limited price declines and postponed supply pressure. It is expected that spot hog prices will move towards the range of 12 - 13 yuan per kilogram. With the narrowing of the fat - lean price spread, attention should be paid to the pressure of large - hog sales. The hog futures market continues to trade on future supply pressure, with a bearish outlook [40]. - Eggs: Egg futures fluctuated narrowly, and some contracts hit new lows. Spot prices in many regions decreased. The chickens that started laying eggs in April were hatched in November last year. Due to the continuous year - on - year increase in chick hatching, the industry's production capacity is expected to rise until July this year. Weekly data shows an increase in old - hen culling. Whether it will lead to large - scale culling needs attention. Inventory data shows high pressure in the circulation link. Technically, after the contract increased positions and prices declined, the previous oscillation range was broken, and prices are expected to face more pressure, with a bearish strategy [41]. - Fibers and Others: - Cotton: US cotton rose significantly. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report showed that the expected cotton - planting area in 2025 is 9.867 million acres, lower than the market forecast of 10.189 million acres. The actual planting area in 2024 was 11.182 million acres. Attention should be paid to weather and subsequent planting progress. The strong US cotton may drive up domestic prices, but spot trading is average. The trading of pure - cotton yarn has not changed much, and prices are slightly weak. The downstream operating rate is lower than the peak - season level in previous years, and the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises is low. Demand is still weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [42]. - Sugar: ICE sugar rebounded overnight. The market's focus has shifted to the Brazilian fundamentals. Less rainfall in Brazil in the first quarter may lead to a decline in yield per unit. Domestically, the pressure of increased production has been digested, and the market will focus on consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales are good this year, and the supply of imported sugar has decreased significantly. However, the downward trend of ICE sugar remains, and the domestic total supply is relatively sufficient. The upside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. - Wood: Wood futures oscillated. Spot prices were weak. The number of orders for construction poles from processing plants was average, and the enthusiasm for purchasing logs was low. Although the port shipment volume has increased recently, it is difficult to digest the inventory in the short term. The log inventory pressure is high, and spot prices are under pressure to decline. The fundamentals are weak, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [45]. - Paper Pulp: Paper - pulp futures fell slightly yesterday. Attention should be paid to whether it can stabilize. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp decreased by 50 yuan to 6450 yuan per ton, and the prices of Hebei U - needle and B - needle pulp and broad - leaf pulp also decreased. As of March 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese paper - pulp ports was 2.013 million tons, a decrease of 33000 tons from the previous period, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease but still at a high level year - on - year. The external - market quotation is relatively firm, with an expectation of price increases. The port inventory is still high, demand is average, and the market has a strong resistance to high - price pulp. It is advisable to wait and see [46]. Other Commodities - Industrial Silicon: Industrial - silicon futures closed slightly lower at 9790 yuan per ton. A factory plans to shut down 28 units, reducing daily output by about 1800 tons, but the market is waiting and seeing. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic silicon wafers is expected to decrease by 3GW in April due to an earthquake, reducing the demand for polycrystalline silicon. The load of organic - silicon monomers is expected to decrease by about 5% month - on - month. The demand side of industrial silicon is difficult to improve, and the supply management of the industry is crucial. The actual production - reduction intensity in the northwest is still unclear, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. - Polypropylene & Plastic: The main contract of plastic continued to fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average. The restart of some polyethylene - production units has increased supply. Only the operating rates of the agricultural - film and drawing industries have increased, but the agricultural - film operating rate in North China has reached its peak and is expected to decline. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is low. Petrochemical and trading companies continue to reduce inventory through price concessions. In the medium term, the plastic price is expected to be weak. The 5 - day moving average of the main contract of polypropylene is flat, and it faces pressure from the 60 - day moving average. The new - capacity release is postponed, and the existing units are under maintenance, so the supply pressure is controllable. The downstream operating rate is generally stable and improving, but new orders are limited due to profit - level issues, and downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand [27]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC fluctuated narrowly during the day. In April, more PVC enterprises are under regular maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Domestic demand is flat, and the inquiry atmosphere for foreign trade exports is slightly better, with concentrated delivery of export orders. The industry inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals are weak, maintaining a weak pattern. For caustic soda, the price of liquid caustic soda purchased by downstream alumina enterprises decreased, and the spot price continued to decline slightly, with a narrowing basis. The machinery enterprises in northern Shandong that previously reduced production are resuming, increasing supply. Downstream and trading companies are not enthusiastic about purchasing. Some alumina enterprises are in the red and have production - reduction expectations. The inventory has increased month - on - month, with high pressure, and the futures price is still under pressure at a high level [28]. - PX & PTA: PX and PTA oscillated following oil prices at night. The gasoline crack spread oscillated and rebounded, and the PX operating rate declined, improving the supply - demand situation. However, the weak terminal orders continue to affect market sentiment, and the PX valuation oscillates at a low level, mainly driven by crude oil. The PTA operating rate has rebounded from a low level, and the maintenance of downstream filament and staple - fiber enterprises has increased, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation for PTA, which is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply of ethylene glycol remains high. Although the maintenance of syngas - based units has increased, the expected decline in polyester operating rate offsets the positive impact of production reduction. The weekly arrival volume has rebounded, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The futures price oscillated at night. There was news of a decline in overseas shipments yesterday, and attention should be paid to the impact of supply changes on the market [30]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: The operating rate of short - fiber increased, and the industry inventory continued to decrease, improving the fundamentals. However, the processing margin continued to weaken, increasing the willingness of enterprises to reduce production. The sales volume rebounded yesterday. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of the processing margin to rebound from a low level due to the decline in industry operating rate. The price of bottle - chip futures oscillated. The recent restart of units has put pressure on the processing margin, which has rapidly declined to a low - level range. The absolute price is driven by cost [31]. - Glass: The number of glass warehouse receipts was small, and the price rose significantly yesterday. The price in Hubei increased by 20 yuan, and sales improved. Currently, coal - fired production still has a small profit, while petroleum - coke and natural - gas - fired production are in the red. The driving forces for cold - repair and ignition are both weak, and the production capacity oscillates within a certain range. The improvement of processing orders is not obvious, and enterprises are cautious about accepting orders with slow payment. The high - position situation remains to be resolved, and there is a large game between long and short positions. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [32]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices rose following glass. Soda - ash factories accumulated inventory on Monday. Previously - overhauled enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the weekly output increased last week. Although the second - line of Jinshan is under maintenance and Hubei Shuanghuan is operating at a reduced load, the impact is limited. With the increase in Yuangxing's production, the weekly output may return to over 700000 tons. The supply - demand situation of photovoltaic glass improved in March, with an increase in daily melting volume and an increase in the rigid demand for heavy - ash. However, the speed of future ignition plans may slow down. With supply pressure and a slowdown in demand growth, the futures price is expected to face pressure at a high level [34]. - Iron and Steel Products: - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel prices continued to rebound slightly at night. The sequential growth of rebar's apparent demand slowed down, and it was still weak year - on - year. The production was stable in the short term, and the inventory was slowly decreasing, but the absolute value was