港股周报-2025-04-02

Market Strategy - The report emphasizes a balanced allocation strategy, suggesting that investors should wait for opportunities for elastic rebounds after recent market pressures due to tariff policies and economic uncertainties [2][4]. - The report highlights that the market is currently lacking a clear narrative, leading to divergent capital flows and a technical adjustment in the Hang Seng Technology Index, which has fallen over 10% from its peak [4][5]. - The anticipated announcement of new tariffs by the U.S. is expected to include global tariffs as high as 20%, impacting all trade partners and increasing global risk aversion [4][5]. Sector Performance - The healthcare sector has shown resilience, with pharmaceutical companies experiencing upward momentum due to strong earnings, particularly in CDMO/CMO companies with significant overseas revenue [7][21]. - The materials sector has benefited from a rotation of funds into high-dividend stocks, with coal stocks seeing gains amid declining risk sentiment in technology and consumer sectors [7][21]. - The consumer sector is exhibiting structural trends, with companies like Pop Mart reporting strong earnings growth, while others like Miniso have seen stock price declines following underwhelming performance [7][21]. AI and Technology Developments - OpenAI and Alibaba have made significant updates to their AI models, enhancing multi-modal capabilities that integrate text, images, audio, and video, which are expected to drive commercial applications [10][16]. - The report notes that the AI infrastructure and cloud computing service providers are entering a valuation reconstruction phase, particularly in the context of domestic chip design companies benefiting from localization trends [7][10]. Consumer Sector Insights - The optional consumer sector has outperformed the necessary consumer sector in terms of profit growth, with a reported net profit increase of 39.4% compared to a decline of 2.76% for necessary consumer goods [21][32]. - Companies in the optional consumer sub-sector, such as Pop Mart, have reported significant revenue growth, with a 106.9% increase in annual revenue, driven by strong performance in overseas markets [35][36]. - The necessary consumer sector is under pressure, but there are expectations for marginal improvements as consumption stimulus policies are implemented in 2025 [32][35]. Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a continued pullback, particularly in the technology sector, with valuations nearing the highs of October 2024 [40][54]. - The report indicates that the risk premium for the Hang Seng Index has rebounded, reflecting a shift in market sentiment and a potential opportunity for investors [54][60]. - The report also highlights that the overall market momentum has weakened, with most sectors entering a lagging phase, except for optional consumer and healthcare sectors which are showing improvement [69][70].