基差小幅走强

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - With the start of the tapping season in Yunnan, China, the expectation of increased supply under high raw material prices is putting pressure on rubber prices. However, the firm raw material prices in Thailand limit the overall downward pressure on rubber prices. The domestic social inventory is slightly decreasing, and the inventory accumulation at ports is narrowing. From a valuation perspective, the domestic prices are relatively lower than overseas due to the loss in the processing profit of raw materials exported from Thailand to Chinese ports. The downstream tire demand shows signs of weakening, mainly due to the increase in tire factory finished - product inventory leading to a decline in the operating rate. The combination of supply increase expectation and slightly weak downstream demand creates short - term pressure on the fundamentals, but there is still support from the high - priced raw materials in Thailand [4] - Currently, there are few upstream maintenance activities for butadiene rubber. The operating rate and production of butadiene rubber are at a high level year - on - year, with short - term supply being relatively abundant. The downstream tire demand is weak, and there are concerns that tire factories may reduce production to relieve the pressure of rising finished - product inventory. The overall supply - demand situation of butadiene rubber is weak, but the stable price of upstream butadiene raw materials, the large price difference between butadiene rubber and natural rubber, and the existing downstream tire replacement demand provide support for the butadiene rubber price. The production profit of butadiene rubber is still in a loss state, but the loss has recently narrowed. With low production profit, the supply is difficult to increase significantly. It is generally expected that the butadiene price has insufficient rebound momentum and will mainly fluctuate within a range [6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,585 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the NR main contract was 14,430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 16,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 16,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,020 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,950 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Recent Market Information: The purchase price of rubber blocks in Yunnan production area is 14.7 - 15.0 yuan/kg, and the purchase price of rubber latex in dry - rubber factories is 15.0 - 15.5 yuan/kg. In April, as the channel inventory continues to rise, the shipment pressure of tire factories will increase. It is expected that some enterprises may have maintenance plans at the beginning of April, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. In terms of price policies, in March, some semi - steel tire brands provided certain promotional policy support for different specifications, but the actual effect was average. Currently, the overall inventory of enterprises is at a high level. To boost sales, more semi - steel tire enterprises may join the promotion. For all - steel tires, the short - term price policy remains stable, and the market wait - and - see sentiment is rising [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On April 1, 2025, the RU basis was - 335 yuan/ton (+25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 135 yuan/ton (+25), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 4,495 yuan/ton (+541.81), the NR basis was 69.00 yuan/ton (- 41.00); the price of full - latex was 16,250 yuan/ton (+50), the price of mixed rubber was 16,450 yuan/ton (+0), the price of 3L spot was 17,350 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 2,020 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 1,100 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,550 yuan/ton (+0) [3] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 71.78 Thai baht/kg (- 2.01), the price of Thai rubber latex was 68.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 60.35 Thai baht/kg (- 1.45), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 8.15 Thai baht/kg (+1.45) [3] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 68.36% (- 0.54%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.19% (- 1.08%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,370,465 tons (- 18,511.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 619,847 tons (+17,524), the RU futures inventory was 200,250 tons (+1,310), and the NR futures inventory was 45,360 tons (- 4,436) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On April 1, 2025, the BR basis was - 100 yuan/ton (- 65), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 11,200 yuan/ton (+100), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 13,800 yuan/ton (+0), the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 13,600 yuan/ton (+100), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 13,350 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,479 yuan/ton (+441) [3] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.17% (- 4.06%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,180 tons (+340), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,980 tons (- 170) [3] Strategy - For natural rubber (RU and NR), the supply increase expectation and slightly weak downstream demand create short - term pressure on the fundamentals, but there is still support from the high - priced raw materials in Thailand, so the rating is neutral [4] - For butadiene rubber (BR), the overall supply - demand situation is weak, but there is support for the price, and the production profit is difficult to increase significantly. The butadiene price is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, so the rating is neutral [6]