3月经济数据前瞻：经济飘红，考验仍在

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for Q1 is expected to be around 5.1%, exceeding the annual target growth rate[2] - Industrial growth is projected at approximately 5.7%, driven by "new technologies" and "export incentives"[2] - Financial sector growth is anticipated to be lower than Q4's 6.5%, with stock trading and insurance premium growth lagging[2] Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise from -0.7% to around -0.2% in March, while PPI is projected at -2.3%[3] - Food prices are forecasted to decline, with pork prices dropping by 5% and vegetable prices by 6%[9] Consumer Activity - Retail sales growth is expected to increase to 4.8% in March, up from 4.0%[21] - The automotive sector is seeing a surge in "trade-in" activities, with over 176.9 million applications for vehicle replacements in March[22] Investment and Trade - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 4.2%, with real estate investment declining by 10%[4] - Exports are expected to grow by 2.5% in March, while imports are projected to decline by 5.5% due to increased tariffs[13] Financial Indicators - New social financing is expected to reach 4.8 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 260 billion[23] - M2 growth is projected at 7.2%, while new M1 is expected to be around 0.3%[23]