瑞达期货铝类产业日报-2025-04-02

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is in a stage of sufficient supply and warm expectations. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a situation of increasing supply and demand and gradually reducing inventory. For both, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is 20,435 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures is 2,890 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,507 US dollars/ton, down 26 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory is 458,900 tons, down 3,550 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum is 43,566 hands, up 11,687 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, up 0.05 [2] - The Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipt is 139,290 tons, down 4,222 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum inventory is 236,557 tons, up 3,317 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,051 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is 0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum price is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The LME aluminum premium/discount is 20,520 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 125 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 161 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 750.75 tons, down 4.92 tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 647.02 tons, down 64.53 tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 20.92 tons, down 14.76 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 21.00 tons, up 1.00 tons; the import volume of alumina is 4.17 tons, up 0.58 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 29.51 tons, up 33.55 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 76.60 tons, down 0.80 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 200,200.39 tons, up 38,792.39 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 3,426.54 tons, down 4,973.02 tons [2] - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,517.20 tons, unchanged; the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum is 97.37%, up 0.29% [2] - The output of aluminum products is 610.66 tons, up 17.91 tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 37.00 tons, down 12.00 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum alloy is 155.20 tons, up 10.20 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 1.75 tons, down 0.06 tons [2] - The automobile production is 349.86 vehicles, up 5.10 vehicles; the National Real Estate Prosperity Index is 93.80, up 0.45 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 9.50%, up 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 8.76%, up 0.07% [2] - The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV is 8.66%, up 0.0003; the option put - call ratio is 0.73, down 0.0451 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The US "reciprocal tariff" is about to be implemented on April 2. The EU has a strong counter - measure plan. Tariffs may push up inflation and unemployment [2] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from February, reaching a new high since December 2024 [2] - The Ministry of Commerce held a national conference on promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, aiming to promote the use of smart terminal consumer goods [2] - From January to February, the added value of above - scale electronic information manufacturing increased by 10.6% year - on - year [2] - New energy vehicle companies released their March sales results. BYD, XPeng, Li Auto, etc. had good performance [2] 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint - The main contract of alumina fluctuates weakly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply of alumina is expected to remain relatively loose, while the demand is expected to be good. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [2] 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum fluctuates, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase steadily, and the demand is also expected to rise. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The option market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [2]