Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-02 09:12Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2505 contract reduced positions and consolidated. In the macro - aspect, US President Trump will give a speech at 4 pm local time on Wednesday (04:00 Beijing time on Thursday), and the tariffs announced by Trump on April 2 will take effect immediately. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased by 1.22 tons this period, inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks, and apparent demand rose to 2.45 million tons. In the short - term, continue to pay attention to the impact of US tariff policies on the market and note the changes in the disk. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA cross upwards at a low position. For operation, the short - term market may still fluctuate, so focus on intraday trading and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,166 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the position volume was 1,210,865 lots, down 61,811 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 145,519 lots, up 7,364 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread was - 81 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 194,295 tons, up 6,935 tons; the HC2505 - RB2505 contract spread was 186 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,490 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 94 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 130 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,215 yuan/ton, unchanged; the domestic iron ore port inventory was 145.204 million tons, up 579,100 tons; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 697,400 tons, down 29,600 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.13%, up 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.10%, up 0.38%; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.6816 million tons, up 53,200 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 992,400 tons, down 52,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.2743 million tons, up 12,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar of sample steel mills was 49.85%, up 0.26%; the factory inventory of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.0953 million tons, down 95,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 6.0958 million tons, down 83,800 tons; the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 71.88%, unchanged; the domestic crude steel output was 75.97 million tons, down 2.43 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 16.75 million tons, up 610,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 7.49 million tons, down 950,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index was 93.80, up 0.45; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 3.20%, up 0.90%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.60%, up 0.80%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 4.40%, up 1.20%; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 7.33247 billion square meters, down 1.27275 billion square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 738.93 million square meters, down 672.79 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing was 390.88 million square meters, up 40.86 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - With the warming of land auctions in core cities, the year - on - year income from the transfer of residential land in major Chinese cities has increased significantly this year. In the first quarter, the planned construction area of residential land transactions in 300 Chinese cities decreased by about 5% year - on - year, but the transfer fee increased by 26.5% year - on - year, and the average premium rates in first - and second - tier cities were relatively high. The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged more than 230 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds in 2025 to support the "two major" construction. So far, the "two major" projects supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have driven about 2.1 trillion yuan of social capital investment [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2].