Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The I2505 contract fluctuated strongly on Wednesday. The market should continue to focus on the impact of US tariff policies in the short - term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2505 contract shows that DIFF and DEA cross upwards. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading, paying attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Key Points by Category Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 791.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; the position volume was 337,143 lots, down 18,053 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 44 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 11,488 lots, up 135 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt of I was 3,300 lots, up 3,300 lots. The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 102.8 dollars/ton, down 0.09 dollars [2]. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 859 yuan/dry ton, up 11 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 839 yuan/dry ton, up 8 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 712 yuan/dry ton, up 16 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 48 yuan, up 8 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 101.65 dollars/ton, down 1.85 dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.23, down 0.09. The estimated import cost was 855 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,647.80 million tons, up 132.60 million tons; the weekly arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,372.30 million tons, down 267.30 million tons. The inventory at 45 ports was 14,520.40 million tons, up 57.91 million tons; the inventory of sample steel mills was 9,110.45 million tons, down 14.41 million tons. The monthly import volume of iron ore was 9,421.00 million tons, down 294.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore were 19 days, down 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines was 41.12 million tons, down 0.01 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 65.05%, down 0.22%. The inventory of iron ore concentrate in 266 mines was 64.13 million tons, up 8.35 million tons. The BDI index was 1,587.00, down 11.00. The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.96 dollars/ton, down 0.03 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.73 dollars/ton, up 0.09 dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.13%, up 0.15%; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.10%, up 0.38%. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 7,597 million tons, down 243 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.14%, down 0.59%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.95%, down 0.19%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.55%, up 0.88%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.04%, down 0.26% [2]. Industry News - From March 24 to March 30, 2025, the total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2647.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 132.6 million tons. The Australian shipment was 1986.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 107.8 million tons, and the shipment from Australia to China was 1527.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34.4 million tons. The Brazilian shipment was 661.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.9 million tons. From March 24 to March 30, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2372.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 267.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2243.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 267.0 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1049.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 191.2 million tons [2].
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-2025-04-02