债券策略月报：2025年4月中债市场月度展望及配置策略-2025-04-02

Group 1 - The report indicates that the economic targets and policies set during the "Two Sessions" are largely in line with expectations, with positive economic data from January to February suggesting a recovery trend in the fundamentals [3][4][5] - The bond market experienced a "bear flattening" trend in March, with the 10Y and 30Y government bond yields rising by over 8 basis points, reflecting a tightening liquidity environment [3][4][11] - The report suggests a defensive strategy in the current market, focusing on short-term deposits and short-term interest rate bonds, while recommending longer-duration products with higher yield spreads to mitigate market volatility [3][6][12] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment analysis highlights that major economic indicators showed robust growth in January and February, with industrial output and consumption exceeding last year's GDP growth rate of 5.0% [5][35][37] - The report notes that the manufacturing PMI for March was recorded at 50.5%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity, with both supply and demand expanding [5][71] - The bond issuance situation in March showed a net issuance of 13,086 billion yuan in government bonds, with local government bonds also seeing significant issuance, indicating manageable pressure on the bond market [17][18] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the liquidity environment has become a primary driver of the bond market, with expectations of a more relaxed liquidity situation in April due to seasonal factors and easing government debt supply pressure [6][25][26] - The analysis of the funding situation indicates that the average rates for R001 and R007 decreased in March, suggesting a potential easing of liquidity conditions moving forward [25][26][34] - The report anticipates that the government bond net issuance in April will be at a seasonal low, which is expected to have minimal impact on the liquidity environment [17][18]