Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in core business in the second half of 2024, alongside the rise of AI-related products and services [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 16.95 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.62%, with full-stack AI products contributing 957 million yuan, accounting for 5.65% of total revenue [9] - The report emphasizes a multi-dimensional improvement in gross margin and effective cost control measures [9] Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 17.23 billion yuan - 2024: 16.95 billion yuan (YoY -1.6%) - 2025E: 18.65 billion yuan (YoY +10.0%) - 2026E: 20.88 billion yuan (YoY +12.0%) - 2027E: 24.02 billion yuan (YoY +15.0%) [8][10] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 713.39 million yuan - 2024: 512.93 million yuan (YoY -28.1%) - 2025E: 707.65 million yuan (YoY +38.0%) - 2026E: 883.31 million yuan (YoY +24.8%) - 2027E: 1.12 billion yuan (YoY +26.5%) [8][10] Business Segmentation - The revenue breakdown by business segment for 2024 is: - Technical Professional Services (TPG): 14.77 billion yuan (YoY -1.7%) - Internet Information Technology Services (IIG): 2.18 billion yuan (YoY +4%) [9][10] - The top five customers account for 57.4% of service revenue, while the top ten customers account for 65.1% [9] Profitability and Cost Management - The company aims to improve gross margin through: - Increasing the proportion of high-margin services - Transitioning to productized software and hardware offerings - Integrating AI tools into delivery processes [9] - The gross profit for 2024 is projected at 3.74 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.1% [9] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a dynamic PE of 23-27 times for 2025, with a 6-month fair value range of 6.43-7.55 HKD [9] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the AI sector, particularly through its partnerships and product offerings [9]
中国软件国际（00354）：2024H2基石业务复苏，AI业务崛起