中债策略周报-2025-04-02

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment improved this week, driven by the central bank's early release of MLF net injection signals and the potential for interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in 10Y/30Y government bond yields by 3.3/4.3 bps respectively [2][11] - The March PMI recorded at 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a recovery in both domestic and external demand [5][31] - The central bank's net injection this week was 303.6 billion yuan, with reverse repos contributing 1,265.3 billion yuan and MLF injections at 450 billion yuan [5][36] Group 2 - The bond market's performance showed a significant recovery, with the issuance of government bonds reaching 3,505 billion yuan and net issuance at 2,450 billion yuan this week [19] - The issuance of local government bonds amounted to 3,363 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 3,196 billion yuan, indicating strong demand for local financing [19] - The interbank market saw a rebound in transaction volume, with average daily trading rising from 6.04 trillion yuan to 6.36 trillion yuan, reflecting improved liquidity conditions [28] Group 3 - The report suggests that despite the potential for a loosening of monetary policy in April, the extent of this shift will depend on the central bank's stance [5][37] - The current market conditions indicate that adopting a defensive strategy and engaging in swing trading may be the best approach, particularly focusing on short-term bonds and high-yield products [5][37] - The economic data for January and February showed a positive start, with various sectors indicating growth above last year's GDP growth rate of 5.0% [37]