冠通研究：关税落地前，行情不确定性高

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the tariff is implemented, market uncertainty is high. The supply side has continuous disturbances, and it is generally believed that the supply will decline slightly in April. The peak season demand in March and April fails to meet expectations, and the market sentiment is weak. After the tariff issue is resolved, the market may stabilize and return to fundamentals. The market sentiment is overshadowed by macro - uncertainties, with signs of weak supply and demand in the spot market, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 [1] 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market closed down in shock today. Codelco will supply copper concentrate to Adani Group's $1.2 billion copper smelter. The US March ISM manufacturing index was 49, lower than expected and the previous value, showing the first contraction this year. The market is uncertain before the tariff is implemented. Supply may decline slightly in April, demand fails to meet expectations, and inventory increases recently, putting pressure on the market. After the tariff issue is resolved, the market may return to fundamentals, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper opened high and moved high, then closed down at 79,890 per ton. The number of long orders of the top 20 decreased by 2,140 to 124,775, and the number of short orders increased by 542 to 129,600. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 15 yuan/ton, and in South China is 30 yuan/ton. On April 1, 2025, the LME official price was $9,703/ton, with a spot premium of -$51/ton [3] Supply Side - As of March 28, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$24.32/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -2.44 cents/pound [4] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 130,400 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous period. As of March 31, Shanghai bonded area copper inventory is 112,100 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons. LME copper inventory is 211,900 tons, a slight decrease of 1,400 tons. COMEX copper inventory is 97,500 short tons, an increase of 1,349 short tons [7]