冠通期货螺纹钢日报-2025-04-02

Report Information - Report Title: Guantong Daily Trading Strategy - Production Date: April 2, 2025 - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Zhang Na (F03104186/Z0021294), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) - Report Issuing Institution: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Oils and Fats: The international biodiesel policy boosts the sector, but the US policy mainly affects 2026 and later. Palm oil supply is rising but may be affected by weather, with weak demand and potential inventory accumulation. Domestic demand is weak, and the 05 contract is near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to sell high. Soybean oil is affected by multiple factors, with the 05 contract in short - term oscillation and expected to be weak in April [3][6]. - Lithium Carbonate: Domestic weekly production is rising, supply pressure persists, and inventory is increasing. The short - term fundamentals are bearish, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 73,000 - 78,000 yuan [7]. - Copper: Market sentiment is affected by macro uncertainties, with weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ is increasing production, and there are many uncertainties in the market. Although there is downward pressure, due to various factors, it is recommended to hold long positions [14][15]. - Asphalt: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold long positions [16][19]. - PP: Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is recommended to wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. - Plastic: Supply is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and it is recommended to short the 05 contract basis at high prices [21][23]. - PVC: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. - Soybean Meal: International supply pressure is high, and domestic supply is gradually improving. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [25][26]. - Iron Ore: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [27]. - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, and the market is expected to oscillate [28]. - Coking Coal: Supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [29][30]. - Urea: The fundamentals are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 1865 - 1910 [31]. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - Market Performance: Palm oil rose 2.04%, soybean oil 0.66%, and rapeseed oil 1.69% [3]. - International Factors: The US plans to increase biofuel blending, and there are weather warnings in palm oil - producing areas. Indian palm oil imports increased in March [3]. - Domestic Factors: Palm oil import profit is inverted, demand is weak, and inventory is low. Soybean oil production decreased, demand increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Rapeseed oil inventory is high [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Sell high for the 05 palm oil contract; the 05 soybean oil contract is expected to be weak in April [3][6]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The futures price fell 1.25% to 73,723.30 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [7]. - Supply - Demand - Inventory: Supply is high with some small - factory production cuts. Demand is growing, and inventory is increasing but at a slower rate [7]. - Operation Suggestion: Pay attention to the spread after concentrated warrant cancellation, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the 73,000 - 78,000 yuan range [7]. Copper - Market Performance: The price oscillated and declined [13]. - Supply - Demand - Inventory: Supply may decrease slightly in April, demand in the peak season is less than expected, and inventory has increased slightly [13]. - Operation Suggestion: The price is expected to fluctuate around 79,000 - 82,000 yuan [13]. Crude Oil - Supply - Demand - Inventory: OPEC+ is increasing production, US production is slightly up, and global demand and inventory are complex. There are many geopolitical factors [14][15]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions [15]. Asphalt - Supply - Demand - Inventory: Supply is decreasing, demand is slowly recovering, and inventory is at a low level [16][19]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold long positions [19]. PP - Supply - Demand - Inventory: Downstream demand is slowly recovering, supply is affected by new production and maintenance, and inventory is at a medium - low level [20]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and see the PP05 contract [20]. Plastic - Supply - Demand - Inventory: Supply is increasing with new production and some maintenance, demand recovery is slow, and inventory is at a medium - low level [21][23]. - Operation Suggestion: Short the 05 contract basis at high prices [23]. PVC - Supply - Demand - Inventory: Supply is relatively stable, demand is weak, and inventory is slowly decreasing [24]. - Operation Suggestion: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [24]. Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The price rose 0.57% [25]. - Supply - Demand - Inventory: International supply pressure is high, domestic supply is improving, and demand is weak [25][26]. - Operation Suggestion: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [26]. Iron Ore - Supply - Demand - Inventory: Supply pressure is rising, demand growth is limited, and inventory is increasing [27]. - Operation Suggestion: The price is expected to oscillate in the 750 - 810 yuan/ton range [27]. Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil - Supply - Demand - Inventory: The fundamentals are neutral - weak, with slow rebar de - stocking and good hot - rolled coil de - stocking [28]. - Operation Suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate [28]. Coking Coal - Supply - Demand - Inventory: Supply and demand are both increasing, but demand lacks elasticity [29][30]. - Operation Suggestion: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [30]. Urea - Supply - Demand - Inventory: Supply is slightly easing, demand is affected by price, and inventory is decreasing [31]. - Operation Suggestion: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the 1865 - 1910 range [31].