2025年4月份投资策略报告：大盘或延续区间震荡走势-2025-04-02

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a slight increase of 0.45% in March, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index experienced declines of 1.01% and 3.07% respectively, indicating a mixed performance across major indices [10][7][3] - The market is expected to continue a range-bound oscillation in April, influenced by ongoing economic policies and external uncertainties, particularly from the U.S. [39][44] Economic Environment Analysis - Global manufacturing PMI showed a mild recovery, with the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, indicating stable economic recovery momentum [15][39] - Domestic economic indicators for January-February showed a steady start, with industrial output increasing by 5.9% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment rising by 4.1% [17][18] - The government work report set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and consumption as key growth drivers [26][30] Sector Allocation - Recommended sectors for April include financials, non-ferrous metals, public utilities, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [45][46] - The financial sector is highlighted for its high dividend yield and low valuation, making it an attractive investment option amid current market uncertainties [46] Policy Implications - The government has introduced a "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" aimed at boosting consumer spending and investment efficiency, which is expected to positively impact economic recovery [30][42] - Monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with expectations for potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to stimulate economic activity [34][43]