2025年2季度有色金属分析报告：降息博弈叠加关税扰动，有色板块高位承压运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The反复 US tariff policy has triggered market concerns and affected market risk appetite, while the cautious adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy has also impacted the commodity market. However, the positive support of domestic policies and the continuous recovery of market demand have provided support for commodity prices. Future attention should be paid to the US tariff policy and the risk of price fluctuations in the commodity market caused by unexpected changes in the Fed's monetary policy [4][48]. - For aluminum, the macro - overseas policy is still in a state of game, and there are uncertainties in overseas tariff policies. The domestic economy is expected to maintain a stable and progressive development trend. In the short term, with macro - support and the peak season resonance, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level range in the second quarter [4][102]. - For zinc, in the second quarter, the supply and demand of zinc are expected to increase. In April, it may be supported by the phased recovery of demand, but in the long - term, zinc prices may face greater pressure from the continuous supply surplus. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly in the second quarter [8]. - For tin, due to frequent problems in overseas mines and the slowdown of the recovery of the supply side, tin prices are expected to remain high in the second quarter [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro: The US Tariff Window is Approaching, Focus on the Evolution of Domestic and Overseas Demand Market Operation Logic - US: The manufacturing industry has re - entered the contraction range, with the March ISM manufacturing PMI at 49, down 1.3 points from the previous month. The labor market shows signs of a mild slowdown, and inflation pressure has eased but remains resilient. The Fed's monetary policy adjustment will be more cautious, and it is expected that the Fed will continue to suspend interest rate cuts at the May FOMC meeting [18][19][21]. - Eurozone: The economic growth momentum is still weak. Although inflation is on a downward trend, the ECB will carefully balance economic growth and inflation risks. The April ECB meeting may suspend interest rate cuts but may release a clearer easing signal, and the probability of a rate cut in June has increased [23][25][26]. - China: The economy started smoothly with policies taking the lead. From January to February, infrastructure investment increased significantly, manufacturing investment remained at a high level, and the decline in real estate development investment narrowed. The consumer market showed a mild recovery, and financial data showed strong social financing but weak credit. The domestic price level maintained a mild upward trend [31][33][48]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's monetary policy adjustment will be more cautious, and the ECB will also balance economic growth and inflation risks. Domestically, the economy continues to recover, but attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies and insufficient domestic demand. The US tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy changes may cause price fluctuations in the commodity market [47][48]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, the evolution of the US tariff policy, overseas geopolitical risks, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [50]. 3.2 Aluminum: Expectations are Gradually Verified, Focus on Further Guidance Market Operation Logic - Price Trend in Q1 2025: In January, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly and then moved in a range. In February, they oscillated strongly with a slightly higher center of gravity. In March, they first rose and then fell [52][53]. - Cost Side: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported bauxite is expected to increase. The price of alumina is under pressure due to new production capacity. The cost of electrolytic aluminum has increased due to the rise in auxiliary materials [58][65][68]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in March, and the import window is closed. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise slightly in April [71][73]. - Scrap Aluminum: The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum narrowed slightly. The import of scrap aluminum increased, but the terminal consumption of the recycled aluminum market was sluggish [76]. - Demand Side: The aluminum processing industry entered the expansion range in March. The terminal demand was divided, with strong demand in the power grid, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaic sectors, but weak demand in the real estate construction sector [80][86][92]. - Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory: In March, the domestic social inventory decreased during the peak season, which supported the price. However, the high - level operation of aluminum prices affected the spot supply - demand pattern of the aluminum industry chain [97]. Market Trend Judgment - Macro - overseas policies are still in a game, and there are uncertainties in overseas tariff policies. The domestic economy is expected to develop steadily. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level range in the second quarter, with support at 19,500 - 19,800 and pressure at 21,000 - 21,300 [102]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Macro - policy game, overseas event interference, mine resumption and shipping, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand [104]. 3.3 Zinc: Short - Term Positive Demand Expectations Provide Support, but Zinc Prices Remain Under Pressure in the Medium - to - Long Term Market Operation Logic - Market Trend in Q1 2025: In the first quarter, zinc prices fluctuated in a range with a lower center of gravity. In January, they weakened due to weakening fundamental support. In February, they moved in a range. In March, they were boosted by macro and peak - season expectations [106][108][109]. - Zinc Concentrate: The production of zinc concentrate is expected to increase, but the overall supply may not recover significantly in 2025. The processing fee continued to rise, indicating that the tight situation of the ore has eased. The import volume increased in the first two months, and the port inventory has improved [112][114][117]. - Refined Zinc: The profit of zinc smelters has been continuously repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. The import window is closed, and there is an expectation of a reduction in imports in the second quarter [121][123]. - Zinc Consumption: Policy support is expected to boost zinc consumption growth, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply - demand relationship [8]. Market Trend Judgment - In the second quarter, the supply and demand of zinc are expected to increase. In April, it may be supported by the phased recovery of demand, but in the long - term, zinc prices may face greater pressure from the continuous supply surplus. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly in the second quarter, with a reference price range of 22,500 - 24,500 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Tin: Tight Supply at the Mine End, Tin Prices Remain High Market Operation Logic - Domestic Refined Tin: The production of domestic refined tin increased, but the processing fee has dropped to a low level in recent years due to the tight supply of mines [8]. - Overseas Supply: Frequent problems in overseas mines, such as the possible delay of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the suspension of the Bisie mine in the DRC, have affected the global supply and pushed up tin prices [8]. - Downstream Demand: The semiconductor industry continues to grow, and the automotive and home appliance markets are optimistic. The overall demand is warm but may not exceed expectations [8]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - There is no specific information provided in the given content about the later concerns/risk factors for tin.