JINNENG(SH:603113) Huaxin Securities·2025-04-02 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 16.265 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.53%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders turned negative at -0.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.95 billion yuan from the previous year [1][2]. - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to a significant drop in product prices, which outpaced the decrease in raw material costs, leading to a reduction in gross margins [2][3]. - The company is actively increasing inventory reserves, with a net cash flow from operating activities dropping by 81.23% to 0.217 billion yuan, while the ending inventory balance increased by 43.98% compared to 2023 [3]. Revenue and Production Growth - The company experienced growth in both revenue and production capacity, with the production volumes for olefins, carbon black, and coal tar products reaching 1.1447 million tons, 0.6716 million tons, and 2.1014 million tons respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 37%, 3%, and 6% [2]. - The sales volumes for these products were 1.1226 million tons, 0.6805 million tons, and 2.0909 million tons, with respective growth rates of 36%, 5%, and 5% [2]. Future Growth Potential - The rapid growth of the domestic new energy vehicle industry is expected to create significant opportunities in the automotive replacement tire market, projected to reach 257.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2026 [4][8]. - Carbon black, which accounts for 28.79% of the company's annual revenue, is anticipated to become a new growth point, especially given its 66.7% downstream application in tire manufacturing [4][8]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 0.126 billion yuan, 0.244 billion yuan, and 0.328 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 39.6, 20.4, and 15.2 times [9][11].