高盛：中国房地产周刊综述_第 13 周综述 - 2025 年第一季度收尾表现较强，但监测城市的新房市场略低于预期

Investment Rating - The report provides a mixed investment rating for various developers, with specific recommendations such as "Sell" for China Vanke and "Buy" for COLI and CR Land [61][62]. Core Insights - The primary market in monitored cities showed a 28% week-on-week increase in new home sales volume, while secondary transactions increased by 5% week-on-week [7][39]. - The easing policies implemented in cities like Shenzhen and Anhui are aimed at promoting new home sales and destocking existing inventory, with a focus on affordable housing projects [1][2]. - The report indicates that the overall primary gross floor area (GFA) sold in 1Q25 was flattish year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2% growth [10]. Summary by Sections Local Policy Developments - Shenzhen updated its Urban Village Redevelopment Project (UVRP) execution guidelines, including housing vouchers and stricter controls on new project approvals [1]. - Anhui introduced easing policies to promote new home sales and expand the scope of local projects [2]. Market Performance - In the 26th week of the easing cycle, primary and secondary volumes were up 21% and 5% week-on-week, respectively, significantly above pre-easing levels [3][11]. - The new home searching heat index fell by 2% week-on-week, indicating a decrease in demand compared to pre-easing levels [20]. Sales and Transactions - New home sales volume averaged a 28% increase week-on-week, with tier-3 cities and the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) outperforming [7][29]. - Secondary transactions showed a 5% week-on-week increase and a 14% year-on-year increase, reflecting positive price expectations from agents and homeowners [39][41]. Inventory and Completions - Inventory levels decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, with inventory months at 25.9, slightly above the average of 25.5 in February 2025 [49][51]. - Completions are expected to show a teen-level year-on-year decline in March 2025, with a projected 3% year-on-year increase for FY25 [54][58]. Valuations - The report notes that offshore developers are trading at an average 34% discount to end-2025 estimated net asset value (NAV), while onshore developers are at a 22% discount [63].