Investment Rating - The report highlights a median forward 12-month P/E of 15X for China internet companies, compared to 22X for US counterparts, indicating a potential undervaluation in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a shift in focus from AI infrastructure to AI applications, with expectations for continued investor interest driven by upcoming model launches and AI agents [2][11]. - Key stock ideas are categorized by mega-cap and large/SMID companies, with notable mentions including JD at 9X 2025 P/E and PDD at 10X 2025 P/E, both identified as solid growth businesses still within 'value' territory [1][19]. - The report identifies three main investor debates: the current state of the AI trade, the focus on domestic consumption proxies, and navigating geopolitical events affecting companies like TikTok and PDD [11][12]. Summary by Sub-Sectors eCommerce - JD is expected to benefit from a government trade-in program, projecting double-digit growth for Q1 2025, while PDD is anticipated to enjoy easier comparisons later in the year [11][16]. - The competitive landscape is normalizing, with JD's unique 1P model and supply chain positioning it as a major beneficiary [17]. AI and Technology - The report notes a significant increase in AI-related capex investments among hyperscalers, with a projected 26% year-over-year growth in 2025 [16]. - The race to develop consumer-facing AI applications is ongoing, with ByteDance leading the way with 32 AI applications launched in the past year [13]. Gaming - The gaming segment is described as relatively healthy, with innovative gameplay enhancing pricing power and an increasing adoption of AI applications in game development [16]. Local Services and Mobility - Meituan is highlighted as a dominant player in food delivery, with stable EBIT margins expected in Q1 2025 [18]. - Full Truck Alliance is noted for its strong order volume growth in freight matching [18]. Data Centers and Cloud - The demand for data centers is entering a new expansion cycle, driven by AI training and public cloud client needs [19]. Advertising - The report anticipates improvements in monetization through AI-powered ad tech, with Tencent positioned favorably due to its Weixin ecosystem [19].
高盛:探索中国互联网行业_后续举措及关键关注点_财报季之后的讨论;中国互联网行业调研要点
高盛·2025-04-02 14:06