KEEP(03650) 国信证券·2025-04-02 15:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to decline slightly by 3.4% to 2.066 billion HKD, primarily due to a decrease in online sports event revenue compared to the high base in 2023. However, the gross margin continues to improve, increasing by 1.8 percentage points to 46.7%, driven by the growth in proprietary brand business and online paid services [1][4] - The company is focusing on its proprietary brand business, which has shown steady growth, particularly in the equipment and apparel categories, which grew by 16%. The launch of the smart watch Pilot1 has also contributed positively, with over 12,000 units sold in four months [2][4] - The company is expanding its outdoor scene successfully, with a 30% year-on-year increase in users participating in niche sports such as cycling and ball games. The average monthly active users (MAU) reached 29.92 million, with a stable paid user penetration rate of 10.6% [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.066 billion HKD, down 3.4% from 2023. The adjusted net loss is expected to widen to 470 million HKD, a 59% increase year-on-year. Sales expenses rose by 33.1% to 758 million HKD, largely due to increased marketing costs related to the sports year and app upgrades [1][5] - The proprietary brand sports products generated revenue of 954 million HKD, up 0.8%, with a gross margin of 31.7%, benefiting from a higher proportion of high-margin categories [2][5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a return to breakeven by 2025, with adjusted net profits projected at 0.00 million HKD in 2025, 65 million HKD in 2026, and 131 million HKD in 2027. The target price has been raised to 6.2-6.6 HKD, reflecting an upward revision in profit forecasts [4][22] - The ongoing AI initiatives are expected to enhance user engagement and subscription rates, with significant benefits anticipated in 2026-2027 [4][22]