CMES(601872) 长江证券·2025-04-02 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 25.8 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.11 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items is estimated at 5.02 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth [2][5]. Financial Performance - The average daily freight rates for various oil tanker types in 2024 are projected to be 37,000 USD for VLCC, 40,000 USD for Suezmax, and 40,000 USD for Aframax, with year-on-year changes of +59.5%, -24.8%, and -16.3% respectively [10]. - The company has secured 30.7% of its oil tanker freight income from transactions with Unipec, a state-owned enterprise, ensuring a stable supply of cargo [10]. - The company’s VLCC fleet is undergoing continuous upgrades, resulting in a decrease of approximately 6% in the average breakeven point year-on-year [10]. Market Dynamics - The dry bulk freight index (BDI) and its sub-indices have shown significant year-on-year increases, with BDI at 1755 (+27.3%), BCI at 2724 (+37.8%), and BPI at 1567 (+9.7%) [10]. - The company has adopted a flexible strategy for its smaller vessel types, including long-term transportation agreements with miners and opportunistic chartering [10]. - The company’s container shipping segment has benefited from high demand, with freight rates for routes to Australia and Southeast Asia increasing by 214% and 180% respectively in 2024 [10]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from a potential recovery in oil and dry bulk shipping markets, with expectations of improved demand due to geopolitical factors and economic recovery [10]. - The projected net profits for the company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.4 billion yuan, 7.0 billion yuan, and 7.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8.4, 7.7, and 7.5 [10].