综合晨报：美国公布对等关税，风险资产大幅下跌-2025-04-03

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US announced reciprocal tariffs, which led to a significant decline in risk assets. The tariff measures have a wide - ranging impact on various financial and commodity markets [1]. - In the commodity market, different products show different trends. For example, the steel price has limited rebound space, the lithium price pressure is marginally weakened, and the oil price is under pressure due to concerns about demand [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Republican Party plans to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion and continue Trump - era tax cuts. Trump's tariff policy has increased risk aversion, which is beneficial to gold, but the stock market decline may also have a negative impact on gold through liquidity. Gold is strong in the short - term but with increased market volatility [10][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Senate Republicans' budget blueprint involves tax cuts and debt ceiling increases. The ADP employment in March increased by 155,000 people, but salary growth slowed. Trump's tariff measures exceeded expectations, increasing the downward risk of US stocks [12][13][14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 229.9 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 225.5 billion yuan. Although the market has not shown a clear upward trend, the probability of monetary policy loosening is high, and it is recommended to actively conduct long - term layouts [17]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA will release the weekly export sales report. The expected export sales of US soybeans are between 25 - 850,000 tons. The impact of Trump's tariff policy on the soybean market needs further attention [19]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports in March increased by 3.92%. The production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline. India's palm oil imports in March increased by 13.2%. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider buying on dips [22][23][24]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Jinzhong is stabilizing. The demand has recovered slightly, but the futures market is still under pressure from warehouse receipts. It is recommended to wait and see for the futures market [25][26]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased, but the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that the CS05 - C05 spread will continue to fluctuate around the normal processing fee of 380 [27][28]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In the first quarter of 2025, the price of new homes in 100 cities in China increased, while the price of second - hand homes decreased. The steel price has large intraday fluctuations, and the export situation is not optimistic in the medium term. It is recommended to take a bearish view on price rebounds [29][30][31]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Traders are actively selling corn, and the spot price is falling. The futures price may have different trends for different contracts. It is recommended to pay attention to the weather in the wheat - producing areas in mid - to late April [32]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The imported steam coal market is stable. The power plant's demand is weak, and the coal price is expected to remain weak in April [33]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian mining company plans to produce 2 million tons of iron ore in Madagascar. In the short term, the iron ore price is supported by the increase in molten iron, but in the long term, the order expectation is deteriorating [34][35]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Affected by the earthquake and market supply - demand, the price of silicon wafers has increased. The polysilicon inventory is expected to decrease in March - April and then increase again in May. It is recommended to pay attention to the price trend in different periods [37][38]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in March increased by 51,900 tons. There are rumors of production cuts, but the impact on the market is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the range - bound operation opportunities [39][40]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Western Mining achieved good results in the first quarter. Some Japanese copper companies' production is expected to be flat. The copper price is affected by macro factors and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [41][42][44]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Western Mining's lead production increased in the first quarter. The lead price is supported by waste batteries but limited by weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [45][47][48]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Boliden's acquisition of mines has been approved. The zinc price is affected by macro factors and market rumors. It is recommended to control positions in the short term [49][50][51]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GreenMei's nickel production capacity in Indonesia has been fully built. The nickel price is cost - supported, and it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [52][53][54]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma Lithium's lithium production reached a record high in 2024. The basic data of lithium carbonate still shows an oversupply, but the pressure on the lithium price is marginally weakened [55][57]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price of LPG in Shandong is stable. The US C3 inventory has increased. The LPG price is affected by tariff policy expectations [58][59]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory has increased significantly. The oil price has fallen due to concerns about demand after the US announced reciprocal tariffs [60]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of high - grade caustic soda in Shandong is falling. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to decline, but the decline is limited [62][63][65]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp shows a differentiated trend. The pulp price is affected by weak domestic demand and tariff policies [66]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has decreased slightly. The market is in a state of shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, but the rate of decline has slowed. The market is expected to be in a shock state [69][70]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips is mostly stable. The supply pressure has increased due to the restart of production capacity, and the short - term processing fee is under pressure [71][73][74]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Jinxi Petrochemical's styrene plant is under maintenance. The cost - side guidance is weakened, and the market is in a wide - range shock [75][76]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to short on rallies [77]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has slightly increased. The price is mainly affected by demand. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on large pullbacks [78][79]. 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The container throughput of major ports in China increased in January - February, but the import was weak. The European line freight rate is oscillating, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [80][81].