朝闻国盛：走出低物价：理论、经验与路径

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report analyzes five historical low-price cycles in China, the US, and Japan, identifying that the core issue of sustained low prices is demand, and emphasizes the need for coordinated policies to elevate prices, with demand policies being the most critical [3] - It suggests five policy measures to promote reasonable price recovery in China, including fiscal policy requiring a broad deficit rate of 12.8%, further easing in real estate, monetary policy adjustments, consumption stimulation, and supply-side structural reforms in key industries [3] Group 2: Financial Engineering - The report discusses the challenges of low-risk premiums and low-interest environments for absolute return strategies, proposing a bottom-up approach to asset allocation that emphasizes strategy configuration over market timing [4] - It highlights that since 2018, multi-asset income strategies have shown robust performance with an annualized return of 8.7% and a maximum drawdown of only 2.8% [4] Group 3: Automotive Sector - Hengshuai Co., Ltd. - Hengshuai Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 960 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, up 6% [6] - The company has diversified its customer base, contributing to revenue growth, and has expanded its product offerings in the electric motor sector, achieving a revenue of 430 million yuan from electric motors, a 17% increase [7] - The company is advancing in the ADAS intelligent cleaning sector and is strategically positioning itself in the robotics market, leveraging its technological expertise [8] Group 4: Construction and Decoration - Northern International - Northern International has seen significant growth in profitability, with improved gross margins driving net profit increases, and is expanding its investment projects, including a 720 million yuan increase for a photovoltaic project in Bosnia [9] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 1.18 billion, 1.32 billion, and 1.45 billion yuan, respectively, with a projected growth rate of 13%, 12%, and 9% [9] Group 5: Real Estate - Greentown China - Greentown China achieved a revenue of 158.55 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, but net profit decreased by 37.9% due to significant impairment losses [11][12] - The company has made substantial impairment provisions, including 4.039 billion yuan in asset impairment losses, which has impacted overall profit performance [12] - Future performance is expected to stabilize as the company focuses on high-quality land acquisitions and has a strong liquidity position backed by state-owned enterprise support [13] Group 6: Computer Sector - Yonyou Network - Yonyou Network reported a revenue of 9.153 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 6.57%, and a net loss of 2.061 billion yuan, a decline of 113.13% [14] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and increasing its subscription model, which is expected to lead to a turnaround despite current external pressures [14] - The revenue forecast for 2025 to 2027 is approximately 10.167 billion, 11.195 billion, and 12.307 billion yuan, with net profits projected to improve over the years [14]