格林大华期货板块早报-2025-04-03

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Wednesday saw a significant decline in the overnight interest rate in the money market, and Minsheng Bank's capital sentiment index indicated non - looseness for the first time since early March, which is favorable for bond bulls. The US reciprocal tariffs announced early today may have a major impact on the global economy. Short - term Treasury bond futures may experience wide - range fluctuations [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contract of Treasury bond futures opened. The 30 - year main contract opened 0.07% higher, and other varieties opened roughly flat. The overall performance was a continuous upward trend throughout the day. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2506 rose 0.86%, the 10 - year T2506 rose 0.26%, the 5 - year TF2506 rose 0.15%, and the 2 - year TS2506 rose 0.04% [1] Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 229.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with 455.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 225.5 billion yuan [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market on Wednesday declined compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.74% (1.83% the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.84% (unchanged from the previous trading day) [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds on Wednesday declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1.80 BP to 1.56%, the 5 - year decreased by 3.01 BP to 1.64%, the 10 - year decreased by 2.17 BP to 1.79%, and the 30 - year decreased by 4.00 BP to 1.98% [1] - On April 3, the US President declared a national emergency, and the White House stated that a 10% "benchmark tariff" would be imposed on all countries, effective at 0:01 am on April 5, Eastern Time. Higher reciprocal tariffs on countries with large trade deficits with the US will take effect at 0:01 am on April 9, Eastern Time. Steel, aluminum, automobiles, gold bars, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wood products are not affected by reciprocal tariffs, and goods from Canada and Mexico that meet the USMCA continue to be exempted from tariffs. A 25% automobile tariff took effect on April 3, causing a sharp decline in US stocks after - hours [1] Market Logic - In late March, the central bank deputy governor stated that China has a moderately loose monetary policy and will cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates as appropriate. The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's first - quarter meeting pointed out to observe and evaluate the bond market from a macro - prudential perspective and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. The PMI released on March 31 showed overall expansion, being slightly weaker in terms of price and employment indices [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]